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Robustness of the Mean-Variance Model with Truncated Probability Distributions

Author

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  • Steven D. Hanson
  • George W. Ladd
  • Charles F. Curtiss

Abstract

The known sufficient conditions for the mean-variance framework to produce expected utility results are violated in the presence of truncated probability distributions. A theoretical simulation is conducted to examine the ability of the linear mean-variance model to approximate expected utility results when the income distribution is truncated by the use of commodity option contracts. The mean-variance model is shown to produce solutions that are close approximations to the expected utility model results under the assumptions of constant absolute risk aversion and normally distributed prices. However, some inconsistency was found between the comparative static results of the two models.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven D. Hanson & George W. Ladd & Charles F. Curtiss, 1991. "Robustness of the Mean-Variance Model with Truncated Probability Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(2), pages 436-445.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:73:y:1991:i:2:p:436-445.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rob Fraser, 2001. "Using Principal‐Agent Theory to Deal with Output Slippage in the European Union Set‐Aside Policy," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 29-41, May.
    2. Rob Fraser, 2018. "Compensation Payments and Animal Disease: Incentivising Farmers Both to Undertake Costly On-farm Biosecurity and to Comply with Disease Reporting Requirements," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(3), pages 617-629, July.
    3. Dye, Ronald A. & Hughes, John S., 2018. "Equilibrium voluntary disclosures, asset pricing, and information transfers," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 1-24.
    4. Coble, Keith H. & Barnett, Barry J., 1999. "The Role Of Research In Producer Risk Management," Professional Papers 15803, Mississippi State University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    5. Coble, Keith H. & Zuniga, Manuel & Heifner, Richard, 2003. "Evaluation of the interaction of risk management tools for cotton and soybeans," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 75(2-3), pages 323-340.
    6. Yano, Yuki & Blandford, David, 2008. "Use of Penalties and Rewards in Agri-Environmental Policy," 82nd Annual Conference, March 31 - April 2, 2008, Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester, UK 36873, Agricultural Economics Society.
    7. Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Good, Darrel L., 2003. "The Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans Over 1995-2001," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14773, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    8. Fraser, Rob W., 1998. "Lease allocation systems, risk aversion and the resource rent tax," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 42(2), pages 1-16.
    9. Predo, Canesio D. & de Guzman, Rosalina G. & Patindol, Remberto A., 2010. "Risk-efficient Planting Schedules for Corn in Matalom, Leyte, Philippines," Philippine Journal of Development PJD 2009 Vol. XXXVI No. 1, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. Mullally, Conner & Boucher, Steve & Carter, Michael, 2010. "Encouragement Designs and Heterogeneous Effects in Agricultural Insurance: Challenges for Impact Evaluations in Agricultural Insurance Interventions," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 271511, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Fraser, Rob W., 1993. "Welfare Effects of and Supply Responses to Recent Australian Agricultural Policy Changes," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(01), pages 1-7, April.
    12. Sakong, Yong, 1991. "Essays in nonparametric measures of changes in taste and hedging behavior with options," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000010679, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Lence, Sergio Horacio, 1991. "Dynamic firm behavior under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000010656, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Chen, Hsiao-Chi & Liu, Shi-Miin, 2016. "Should ports expand their facilities under congestion and uncertainty?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 109-131.
    15. Kingwell, Ross S., 2001. "Charging for the use of plant varieties," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 45(2), pages 1-15.
    16. Joao Martines-Filho, 2006. "The Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 162-181.
    17. Kingwell, Ross S., 2000. "Incentive Design for Introducing Genetically Modified Crops," 2000 Conference (44th), January 23-25, 2000, Sydney, Australia 123687, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    18. Fraser, Rob W., 2004. "A method for evaluating the extent to which farm subsidies can be de-coupled before profitable arable land is abandoned in the European Union," 2004 Conference (48th), February 11-13, 2004, Melbourne, Australia 58448, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    19. Fraser, Rob W., 1992. "An Analysis Of Willingness-To-Pay For Crop Insurance," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13, April.
    20. Fraser, Rob W., 1997. "Seasonal variability, land values and willingness-to-pay for a forward wheat contract with protein premiums and discounts," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), pages 1-17.
    21. Good, Darrel L. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Irwin, Scott H., 2002. "The Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services In Corn And Soybeans Over 1995-2000," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14784, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    22. Frechette, Darren L., 2000. "Hedging With Futures And Options: A Demand Systems Approach," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18941, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    23. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Martines-Filho, Joao Gomes & Hagedorn, Lewis A., 2005. "The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans over 1995-2003," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14775, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    24. Fraser, Rob, 2000. "Is risk-sharing resource taxation in society's best interests if prices are log-normally distributed?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 219-225, December.

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