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Cropland Reflux: Trends In and Locations of Land Use Change in the Dakotas, 2007 to 2012 and 2012 to 2017

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  • Wang, Tong
  • Ayesh, Abubakr
  • Hennessy, David
  • Feng, Hongli

Abstract

This article analyzed land use trends in South and North Dakota over the 2007-2012 and 2012-2017 periods using USDA NASS cropland data layer (CDL) data. Most grassland to cropland conversions occurred during the 2007-2012 period. In South Dakota, nearly 20% of grassland in 2007 was converted to cropland in 2012. During the 2012 to 2017 period, substantial reversion to grass occurred. Land use change trends in North Dakota were similar to those in South Dakota over the 2007-2012 time frame, with a high grassland to cropland conversion rate during 2007-2012 (19.90%) and a greatly curtailed conversion rate during 2012-2017 period (7.81%). To a large degree, changes in land conversion trends in the Dakotas between 2007-2012 and 2012-2017 can be attributed to changing crop prices. Yet due to the "hysteresis" phenomena, even though crop prices have been overall declining since 2012, grassland acres in the future are not likely to revert to the same level as 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Tong & Ayesh, Abubakr & Hennessy, David & Feng, Hongli, 2018. "Cropland Reflux: Trends In and Locations of Land Use Change in the Dakotas, 2007 to 2012 and 2012 to 2017," Bulletin 274938, South Dakota State University, Agricultural Experiment Station.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:sdsaeb:274938
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.274938
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edward D. Perry & GianCarlo Moschini & David A. Hennessy, 2016. "Testing for Complementarity: Glyphosate Tolerant Soybeans and Conservation Tillage," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 765-784.
    2. Wang, Tong & Luri, Moses & Janssen, Larry & Hennessy, David A. & Feng, Hongli & Wimberly, Michael C. & Arora, Gaurav, 2017. "Determinants of Motives for Land Use Decisions at the Margins of the Corn Belt," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 227-237.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hongli Feng & Tong Wang & David A. Hennessy & Gaurav Arora, 2022. "Over-Perception about Land Use Changes: Assessing Empirical Evidence and Linkage with Decisions and Motivated Beliefs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 98(2), pages 254-273.
    2. Ruiqing Miao & David A. Hennessy & Hongli Feng, 2022. "Grassland easement evaluation and acquisition with uncertain conversion and conservation returns," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(1), pages 41-61, March.
    3. Wang, Tong & Jin, Hailong & Kreuter, Urs & Teague, Richard, 2021. "Expanding grass-based agriculture on marginal land in the U.S. Great Plains: The role of management intensive grazing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Arora, Gaurav & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A. & Loesch, Charles R. & Kvas, Susan, 2021. "The impact of production network economies on spatially-contiguous conservation– Theoretical model with evidence from the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

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