IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332390.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling regional transportation demand in China and the impacts of a national carbon constraint

Author

Listed:
  • Kishimoto, Paul N.
  • Zhang, Da
  • Zhang, Xiliang
  • Karplus, Valerie J.

Abstract

Climate and energy policy in China will have important and uneven impacts on the country’s regionally heterogeneous transport system. In order to simulate these impacts, transport sector detail is added to a multi-sector, static, global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which resolves China’s provinces as distinct regions. This framework is used to perform an analysis of national-level greenhouse gas (GHG) policies. Freight, commercial passenger and household (private vehicle) transport are separately represented, with the former two categories further disaggregated into road and non-road modes. The preparation of model inputs is described, including assembly of a provincial transport data set from publicly-available statistics. Two policies are analyzed: the first represents China’s target of a 17% reduction in GHG emissions intensity of GDP during the Twelfth Five Year Plan (12FYP), and the second China’s Copenhagen target of a 40–45% reduction in the same quantity during the period 2005–2020. We find significant heterogeneity in regional transport impacts. We find that both freight and passenger transportation in some of the poorest provinces that rely heavily on energy-intensive resource and raw materials exports are most adversely affected, as they offer many of the least cost abatement opportunities and the transformation of their energy systems strongly affects transport demand. At the national level, we find that of all the transport-related sectors, road freight transport activity is affected most by policy, likely due to its high energy intensity and limited low cost opportunities for improving efficiency. The type and degree of regional disparity in impacts is relevant to central and provincial government decisions which set and allocate climate, energy and transport policy targets. We describe how this research establishes a basis for further regional CGE analyses of the economic, energy and environmental impacts of transport-focused policies including vehicle ownership restrictions, taxation of driving activity or fuels, and the supply of public transit.

Suggested Citation

  • Kishimoto, Paul N. & Zhang, Da & Zhang, Xiliang & Karplus, Valerie J., 2013. "Modeling regional transportation demand in China and the impacts of a national carbon constraint," Conference papers 332390, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332390
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332390/files/6376.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rausch Sebastian & Metcalf Gilbert E. & Reilly John M & Paltsev Sergey, 2010. "Distributional Implications of Alternative U.S. Greenhouse Gas Control Measures," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-46, July.
    2. Hu, Xiaojun & Chang, Shiyan & Li, Jingjie & Qin, Yining, 2010. "Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges, initiatives and policy implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4289-4301.
    3. Cherry, Christopher R. & Weinert, Jonathan X. & Yang, Xinmiao, 2009. "Comparative Environmental Impacts of Electric Bikes in China," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt16k918sh, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    4. Jonathan Weinert & Chaktan Ma & Christopher Cherry, 2007. "The transition to electric bikes in China: history and key reasons for rapid growth," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 301-318, May.
    5. Hao, Han & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2011. "Comparison of policies on vehicle ownership and use between Beijing and Shanghai and their impacts on fuel consumption by passenger vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1016-1021, February.
    6. Weinert, Jonathan X. & Ogden, Joan M. & Sperling, Dan & Burke, Andy, 2008. "The future of electric two-wheelers and electric vehicles in China," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt0d05f8v9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    7. Kyung-Min Nam, 2011. "Learning through the international joint venture: lessons from the experience of China's automotive sector," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 20(3), pages 855-907, June.
    8. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M., 2013. "Applying engineering and fleet detail to represent passenger vehicle transport in a computable general equilibrium model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 295-305.
    9. Weinert, Jonathan & Ogden, Joan & Sperling, Dan & Burke, Andrew, 2008. "The future of electric two-wheelers and electric vehicles in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2544-2555, July.
    10. Campos, Javier & de Rus, Ginés, 2009. "Some stylized facts about high-speed rail: A review of HSR experiences around the world," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-28, January.
    11. Gorman, Michael F., 2008. "Evaluating the public investment mix in US freight transportation infrastructure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-14, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wells, Peter & Lin, Xiao, 2015. "Spontaneous emergence versus technology management in sustainable mobility transitions: Electric bicycles in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 371-383.
    2. Ou, Shiqi & Hao, Xu & Lin, Zhenhong & Wang, Hewu & Bouchard, Jessey & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven & Wu, Zhixin & Zheng, Jihu & Lv, Renzhi & Qi, Liang & LaClair, Tim J., 2019. "Light-duty plug-in electric vehicles in China: An overview on the market and its comparisons to the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 747-761.
    3. Chen, Ching-Fu & Eccarius, Timo & Su, Pin-Chi, 2021. "The role of environmental concern in forming intentions for switching to electric scooters," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 129-144.
    4. Jun Li & Jiachao Shen & Bicen Jia, 2021. "Exploring Intention to Use Shared Electric Bicycles by the Extended Theory of Planned Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Rao, Zhonghao & Wang, Shuangfeng, 2011. "A review of power battery thermal energy management," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4554-4571.
    6. Li, Xintong & Han, Chunyang & Huang, Helai & Pervez, Amjad & Xu, Guangming & Hu, Cheng & Jiang, Qianshan & Wei, Yulu, 2023. "Pursuing higher acceptability and compliance for electric two-wheeler standardization policy in China: The importance of socio-demographic characteristics, psychological factors, and travel habits," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Geoffrey Rose, 2012. "E-bikes and urban transportation: emerging issues and unresolved questions," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 81-96, January.
    8. Jago Dodson, 2014. "Suburbia under an Energy Transition: A Socio-technical Perspective," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(7), pages 1487-1505, May.
    9. Walker, Paul D. & Roser, Holger M., 2015. "Energy consumption and cost analysis of hybrid electric powertrain configurations for two wheelers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 279-287.
    10. Hao, Han & Geng, Yong & Wang, Hewu & Ouyang, Minggao, 2014. "Regional disparity of urban passenger transport associated GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in China: A review," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 783-793.
    11. Tian, Xi & Gong, Yu & Wu, Yufeng & Agyeiwaa, Amma & Zuo, Tieyong, 2014. "Management of used lead acid battery in China: Secondary lead industry progress, policies and problems," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 75-84.
    12. Lin, Xiao & Wells, Peter & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2018. "The death of a transport regime? The future of electric bicycles and transportation pathways for sustainable mobility in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 255-267.
    13. Yide Liu & Ivan Ka Wai Lai, 2020. "The Effects of Environmental Policy and the Perception of Electric Motorcycles on the Acceptance of Electric Motorcycles: An Empirical Study in Macau," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    14. Xingping Zhang & Rao Rao & Jian Xie & Yanni Liang, 2014. "The Current Dilemma and Future Path of China’s Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, March.
    15. Sebastian Rausch and Valerie J. Karplus, 2014. "Markets versus Regulation: The Efficiency and Distributional Impacts of U.S. Climate Policy Proposals," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    16. Thomas, Alainna, 2016. "A More Sustainable Minivan? An Exploratory Study of Electric Bicycle Use by San Francisco Bay Area Families," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6g79m3xx, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    17. Gihan Ekanayake & Mahesh Suresh Patil & Jae-Hyeong Seo & Moo-Yeon Lee, 2018. "Numerical Study on Heat Transfer Characteristics of the 36V Electronic Control Unit System for an Electric Bicycle," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, September.
    18. Rui Wang, 2011. "Environmental and resource sustainability of Chinese cities: A review of issues, policies, practices and effects," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 112-121, May.
    19. Tapia-Ahumada, Karen & Octaviano, Claudia & Rausch, Sebastian & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio, 2015. "Modeling intermittent renewable electricity technologies in general equilibrium models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 242-262.
    20. Cherry, Christopher R. & Yang, Hongtai & Jones, Luke R. & He, Min, 2016. "Dynamics of electric bike ownership and use in Kunming, China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 127-135.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.