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An Estimation of International Maritime Container Volume Among Asian Countries by GTAP Model and Simulation on FTA And Transport Improvement Scenario

Author

Listed:
  • Shibasaki, Ryuichi
  • Ma, Liqiang
  • Kadono, Takashi
  • Ishikura, Tomoki
  • Ieda, Hitoshi

Abstract

While regional economic integration has recently attracted much interest, its impact on the rapidly developing international maritime transport industry is a major concern. This paper proposes a method for estimating the international container cargo OD flows under various hypothetical FTA memberships and transport technical progress by incorporating the GTAP model. The effects under the FTA scenarios and transport technical progress scenarios on the selected countries’ economy, social welfare, trade amounts and container OD flows are discussed. Since this method provides an approach for estimating the OD flows on a national wide level, it can be utilized for assessing the policy effects on international trade and transportation. In addition, it is also an important step for demand forecasting such as the volume of container handling and transshipment on the international container shipping transport networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Shibasaki, Ryuichi & Ma, Liqiang & Kadono, Takashi & Ishikura, Tomoki & Ieda, Hitoshi, 2005. "An Estimation of International Maritime Container Volume Among Asian Countries by GTAP Model and Simulation on FTA And Transport Improvement Scenario," Conference papers 331384, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:331384
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