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Shocks, Policy Reforms and Pro-Poor Growth in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis

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Author Info
Jann Lay
Rainer Thiele
Manfred Wiebelt

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Abstract

This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia's ability to achieve pro-poor growth. Employing a recursive-dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Niño); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks are likely to impair Bolivia's medium-term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, the poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households. Copyright © 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2007.00394.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 37-56
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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:12:y:2008:i:1:p:37-56

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  1. Nunnenkamp, Peter & Schweickert, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2006. "Distributional effects of FDI: How the interaction of FDI and economic policy affects poor households in Bolivia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 35, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
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