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A Decision Model To Assess Cattle Feeding Price Risk

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  • May, Gary J.
  • Lawrence, John D.

Abstract

Traditional break-even/fed cattle price projections do not provide adequate risk information to feeders, investors, lenders, and other stakeholders interested in cattle feeding decisions. The objectives of this study were two-fold: 1) develop a spreadsheet model that could estimate the net income distribution surrounding a cattle placement decision based on historical errors of futures based price forecasts, and 2) determine whether information generated from the model can be used to improve placement and marketing decisions. To accomplish objective 1, model was developed that could estimate the income distribution around a pen of cattle under a cash speculating and short hedge pricing strategy. Distribution estimates were based on 7 alternative forecast horizons and were derived from historical forecast errors. To accomplish objective 2, decision rules were developed that allow the feeder to specify the maximum probability he/she is willing to risk losing a specified level of income. These decision rules were compared to random and naive decision rules by simulating the outcomes over 168 discrete six months feeding periods between 1987 and 2000. Risk averse decision rules were successful in signaling highly unprofitable feeding periods, but also filtered out highly profitable feeding periods.

Suggested Citation

  • May, Gary J. & Lawrence, John D., 2002. "A Decision Model To Assess Cattle Feeding Price Risk," 2002 Conference, April 22-23, 2002, St. Louis, Missouri 19067, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ncrtwo:19067
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dodson, Charles B. & Elam, Emmett W., 1992. "Returns to Custom Cattle Feeding," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 10(2), pages 1-16.
    2. Richard E. Just & Gordon C. Rausser, 1981. "Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Models and the Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 197-208.
    3. Lawrence, John & Wang, Zhi & Loy, Dan, 1999. "Elements of Cattle Feeding Profitability in Midwest Feedlots," ISU General Staff Papers 199901010800001486, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Lawrence, John D. & Wang, Zhi & Loy, Dan, 1999. "Elements of Cattle Feeding Profitability in Midwest Feedlots," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 349-357, August.
    5. Mark R. Manfredo & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1999. "Value-at-Risk Analysis: A Review and the Potential for Agricultural Applications," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 99-111.
    6. Lawrence, John D. & Wang, Zhi & Loy, Dan, 1999. "Elements of Cattle Feeding Profitability in Midwest Feedlots," Staff General Research Papers Archive 2039, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Mark, Darrell R. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Jones, Rodney D., 2000. "Identifying Economic Risk In Cattle Feeding," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 18(3), pages 1-14.
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    Cited by:

    1. Capitani, Daniel Henrique Dario & Mattos, Fabio, 2012. "Risk measurement in commodities markets: How much price risk do agricultural producers really face?," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124761, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    Livestock Production/Industries; Marketing;

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