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Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production

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Author Info

  • Belasco, Eric J.
  • Taylor, Mykel R.
  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Schroeder, Ted C.

Abstract

Cattle feeding enterprises operate amid variability originating in prices and production. This research explicitly models yield risks related to cattle feeding by relating the mean and variance of yield performance factors to observable conditioning variables. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, placement season, and location influence the mean and variability of yield factors, defined as dry matter feed conversion, average daily gain, mortality, and animal health costs. Ex ante profit distributions, conditional on cattle placement characteristics, are derived through simulation methods to evaluate the effects of price or yield shocks on the distributional characteristics of expected profits.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/48761
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 01 (April)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:48761

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Web page: http://www.saea.org/jaae/jaae.htm
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Related research

Keywords: conditional variance; production risk; cattle feeding; yields; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; D81; Q12;

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  1. Harvey, A C, 1976. "Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(3), pages 461-65, May.
  2. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
  3. Joseph Atwood & Saleem Shaik & Myles Watts, 2003. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed? A Reexamination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 888-901.
  4. Alan P. Ker & Barry K. Goodwin, 2000. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Insurance Rates Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 463-478.
  5. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
  6. Weninger, Quinn & Just, Richard E., 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," Staff General Research Papers 5064, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Mark, Darrell R. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Jones, Rodney D., 2000. "Identifying Economic Risk In Cattle Feeding," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 18(3).
  8. Alan P. Ker & Keith Coble, 2003. "Modeling Conditional Yield Densities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 291-304.
  9. Langemeier, Michael R. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Mintert, James R., 1992. "Determinants Of Cattle Finishing Profitability," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
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Cited by:
  1. Yu, Chin-Hsien & Park, Seong Cheol & McCarl, Bruce A. & Amosson, Stephen H., 2012. "Feedlots, Air Quality and Dust Control-Benefit Estimation under Climate Change," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124736, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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