Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production
AbstractCattle feeding enterprises operate amid variability originating in prices and production. This research explicitly models yield risks related to cattle feeding by relating the mean and variance of yield performance factors to observable conditioning variables. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, placement season, and location influence the mean and variability of yield factors, defined as dry matter feed conversion, average daily gain, mortality, and animal health costs. Ex ante profit distributions, conditional on cattle placement characteristics, are derived through simulation methods to evaluate the effects of price or yield shocks on the distributional characteristics of expected profits.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 01 (April)
conditional variance; production risk; cattle feeding; yields; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; D24; D81; Q12;
Other versions of this item:
- Belasco, Eric J. & Taylor, Mykel R. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2006. "Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21265, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
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Staff General Research Papers
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