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The Effect of Prior Gains and Losses on Current Risk-Taking Using Quantile Regression

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  • Mattos, Fabio
  • Garcia, Philip
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets using a quantile regression framework. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders suggests that there is great heterogeneity in individual trading behavior. Traders respond differently to prior profits depending on how much risk their portfolios are carrying. In general, no significant response is found at average and below-average levels of risk, but response can become large and significant at above-average levels of risk. These results are consistent with studies which argued that behavior may be uneven under different circumstances, and calls into question the adoption of conditional mean framework to investigate trading behavior. Focusing the analysis on the effect of prior profits on the conditional mean of the risk distribution can yield misleading results about dynamic behavior.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53035
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management in its series 2009 Conference, April 20-21, 2009, St. Louis, Missouri with number 53035.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2009
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:nccc09:53035

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    Web page: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134/
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    Related research

    Keywords: loss aversion; house-money effect; quantile regression; futures; options; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Consumer/Household Economics; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management; Financial Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty;

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    1. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Whaley, Robert E, 1987. " Efficient Analytic Approximation of American Option Values," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 301-20, June.
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    3. Arkes, Hal R. & Hirshleifer, David & Jiang, Danling & Lim, Sonya, 2008. "Reference point adaptation: Tests in the domain of security trading," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 67-81, January.
    4. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
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    12. Frino, Alex & Johnstone, David & Zheng, Hui, 2004. "The propensity for local traders in futures markets to ride losses: Evidence of irrational or rational behavior?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 353-372, February.
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    15. Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2008. "Probability weighting and loss aversion in futures hedging," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 433-452, November.
    16. Keasey, Kevin & Moon, Philip, 1996. "Gambling with the house money in capital expenditure decisions: An experimental analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 105-110, January.
    17. Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Bryan K. Church & James Tompkins & Richard Deaves, 2003. "An experimental examination of the house money effect in a multi-period setting," Working Paper 2003-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    18. Frino, Alex & Grant, Joel & Johnstone, David, 2008. "The house money effect and local traders on the Sydney Futures Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 8-25, January.
    19. Massimo Massa & Andrei Simonov, 2005. "Behavioral Biases and Investment," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 483-507, December.
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