IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/ifma03/24399.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Combining Biophysical and Price Simulations to Assess the Economics of Long-Term Crop Rotations

Author

Listed:
  • Murray-Prior, Roy B.
  • Whish, J.
  • Carberry, Peter S.
  • Dalgleish, N.

Abstract

Biophysical simulation models (e.g. APSIM) using historical rainfall data are increasingly being used to provide yield and other data on crop rotations in various regions of Australia. However, to analyse the economics of these rotations it is desirable to incorporate the other main driver of profitability, price variation. Because the context was that APSIM was being used to simulate an existing trial site being monitored by a farmer group Gross Margin output was considered most appropriate. Long-run rotational gross margins were calculated for the various rotations with yields (and other physical outputs) derived from APSIM simulations over a period of 100+ years and prices simulated in @Risk based on subjective triangular price distributions elicited from farmers in the group. Rotations included chickpeas, cotton, lucerne, sorghum, wheat and different lengths of fallow. Output presented to the farmers included mean annual gross margins and distributions of gross margins presented as probability distributions, cumulative probability distributions and box and whisker plots. Cotton rotations were the most profitable but had greater declines in soil fertility and greater drainage out of the root zone.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray-Prior, Roy B. & Whish, J. & Carberry, Peter S. & Dalgleish, N., 2003. "Combining Biophysical and Price Simulations to Assess the Economics of Long-Term Crop Rotations," 14th Congress, Perth, Western Australia, August 10-15, 2003 24399, International Farm Management Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ifma03:24399
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.24399
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/24399/files/cp03mu01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.24399?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bathgate, Andrew & Pannell, David J., 2002. "Economics of deep-rooted perennials in western Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 117-132, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doole, Graeme J. & Romera, Alvaro J. & Leslie, Jennifer E. & Chapman, David F. & Pinxterhuis, Ina (J.B.). & Kemp, Peter D., 2021. "Economic assessment of plantain (Plantago lanceolata) uptake in the New Zealand dairy sector," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    2. Hajkowicz, Stefan & Young, Michael D., 2003. "Economic Impacts Of Dryland Salinity For Grains Industries," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57884, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Senthold Asseng & David Pannell, 2013. "Adapting dryland agriculture to climate change: Farming implications and research and development needs in Western Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 167-181, May.
    4. Doole, Graeme J. & Vigiak, Olga & Pannell, David J. & Roberts, Anna M., 2013. "Cost-effective strategies to mitigate multiple pollutants in an agricultural catchment in North Central Victoria, Australia," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(3).
    5. Doole, Graeme J., 2008. "Optimal management of annual ryegrass ( Lolium rigidum Gaud.) in phase rotations in the Western Australian Wheatbelt," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(3), pages 1-24.
    6. Bathgate, A. & Revell, C. & Kingwell, R., 2009. "Identifying the value of pasture improvement using wholefarm modelling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 48-57, October.
    7. Byrne, F. & Robertson, M.J. & Bathgate, A. & Hoque, Z., 2010. "Factors influencing potential scale of adoption of a perennial pasture in a mixed crop-livestock farming system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(7), pages 453-462, September.
    8. Crossman, Neville D. & Bryan, Brett A., 2009. "Identifying cost-effective hotspots for restoring natural capital and enhancing landscape multifunctionality," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 654-668, January.
    9. Kingwell, Ross S., 2011. "Managing complexity in modern farming," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(1), pages 1-23.
    10. Graeme J. Doole, 2008. "Optimal management of annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum Gaud.) in phase rotations in the Western Australian Wheatbelt ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(3), pages 339-362, September.
    11. Pannell, David J. & Ridley, Anna M., 2006. "A framework to select policy tools for dryland salinity," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 139889, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    12. Pannell, David J. & Ewing, Michael A., 2006. "Managing secondary dryland salinity: Options and challenges," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(1-3), pages 41-56, February.
    13. Pannell, David J. & Roberts, Anna M. & Park, Geoff & Alexander, Jennifer, 2013. "Improving environmental decisions: A transaction-costs story," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 244-252.
    14. Doole, Graeme J., 2012. "Cost-effective policies for improving water quality by reducing nitrate emissions from diverse dairy farms: An abatement–cost perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 10-20.
    15. Bell, Lindsay W. & Byrne (nee Flugge), Felicity & Ewing, Mike A. & Wade, Len J., 2008. "A preliminary whole-farm economic analysis of perennial wheat in an Australian dryland farming system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-3), pages 166-174, March.
    16. Pannell, David J., 2001. "Dryland salinity: economic, scientific, social and policy dimensions," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 45(4), pages 1-30.
    17. Flugge, Felicity & Schilizzi, Steven, 2003. "Greenhouse Gas Abatement Policies and the Value of Carbon Sinks: Do Grazing and Cropping Systems have Different Destinies?," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57865, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    18. Poole, M. L. & Turner, Neil C. & Young, J. M., 2002. "Sustainable cropping systems for high rainfall areas of southwestern Australia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 201-211, February.
    19. O'Connell, Michael, 2003. "Economic Evaluation of Phase Farming with Lucerne on the Esperance Sandplain," 14th Congress, Perth, Western Australia, August 10-15, 2003 24324, International Farm Management Association.
    20. Jones, Randall E., 2005. "Sustainability and integrated weed management in Australian winter cropping systems: a bioeconomic analysis," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137930, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ifma03:24399. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifmaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.