Operational Models for Improving the Targeting Efficiency of Agricultural and Development Policies: A systematic comparison of different estimation methods using out-of-sample tests
AbstractAccurate targeting is key for the success of any development policy. While a number of factors might explain low targeting efficiency such as governance failure, political interference or lack of political will, this paper focuses on improving indicator-based models that identify poor households and smallholder farmers more accurately. Using stepwise regressions along with out-of-sample validation tests and receiver operating characteristic curves, this paper develops proxy means tests models for rural and urban Malawi. The models developed have proved their validity in an independent sample and therefore, can be used to target a wide range of development policies to the poor. This makes the models a potentially interesting policy tool for the country.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China with number 51454.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Malawi; poverty targeting; predictions; proxy means tests; out-of-sample tests; ROC curve; bootstrap; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Security and Poverty; International Development; Political Economy; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; C01; C13; C51; C52; I3; I32; Q14;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
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- World Bank, 2007. "Malawi : Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment, Investing in Our Future," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7555, The World Bank.
- Ahmed, Akhter U. & Rashid, Shahidur & Sharma, Manohar & Zohir, Sajjad, 2004. "Food aid distribution in Bangladesh," FCND briefs 173, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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