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Incorporating risk in a positive mathematical programming framework: a new methodological approach

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  • Arata, Linda
  • Donati, Michele
  • Sckokai, Paolo
  • Arfini, Filippo

Abstract

In this paper we develop a new methodological proposal to incorporate risk into a farm level Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model. Our model presents some innovations with respect to the previous literature and estimates simultaneously the resource shadow prices, the farm non-linear cost function and a farm-specific coefficient of absolute risk aversion. The proposed model has been applied to three farm samples and the estimation results confirm the calibration ability of the model and show values for risk aversion coefficients consistent with the literature. Finally we simulate different scenarios of crop price volatility to test the model reactions as well as the potential role of an agri-environmental scheme as risk management tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Arata, Linda & Donati, Michele & Sckokai, Paolo & Arfini, Filippo, 2014. "Incorporating risk in a positive mathematical programming framework: a new methodological approach," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae14:182659
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.182659
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xuan & van Kooten, Gerrit Cornelis & Duan, Jun, 2020. "Calibration of agricultural risk programming models using positive mathematical programming," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    2. Carpentier, Alain & Gohin, Alexandre & Sckokai, Paolo & Thomas, Alban, 2015. "Economic modelling of agricultural production: past advances and new challenges," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 96(01), pages 131-165, March.
    3. Kamel Elouhichi & Maria Espinosa Goded & Pavel Ciaian & Angel Perni Llorente & Bouda Vosough Ahmadi & Liesbeth Colen & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma, 2018. "The EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP v.1): Economic Impacts of CAP Greening," JRC Research Reports JRC108693, Joint Research Centre.

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    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty;

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