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Production system based global livestock sector modeling: Good news for the future

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  • Havlik, Petr
  • Herrero, Mario
  • Mosnier, Aline
  • Obersteiner, Michael
  • Schmid, Erwin
  • Fuss, Sabine
  • Schneider, Uwe A.

Abstract

Livestock is recognized as one of the major drivers of current and future global change. This is caused on the production side, by the substantial resource requirements (land and water) per unit of output, and the related greenhouse gas emissions, and on the consumption side, by the growing demand due to population and economic growth. Our paper investigates whether productivity gains which enabled to the crop sector to satisfy the increased demand under decreasing real prices, and with little additional land, in the past decades, can be expected in the livestock sector in the future. To answer this question, we implement the recursively dynamic partial equilibrium bottom-up model of the global agriculture and forest sectors (GLOBIOM), expanded by a newly developed livestock module. The livestock module is based on the Sere and Steinfeld livestock production system classification, characterized by detailed input-output coefficients, including manure and greenhouse gas emissions. Our results show that if the production system composition is allowed to freely adapt to economic and resource constraints, the increases in per hectare productivity will allow satisfying the 2030 demand for ruminant products with less land than in 2000, and the livestock product prices will remain stable. This contrasts with the numbers obtained, when the ruminant production system structure is kept constant as in 2000, resulting among others in three times higher carbon prices. The adaptation in the livestock sector is hence a condition for sustainable future development, and it has to be taken into account when designing future policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 114552.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:114552

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Keywords: mathematical programming; livestock; land use change; Livestock Production/Industries;

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  1. Kruska, R. L. & Reid, R. S. & Thornton, P. K. & Henninger, N. & Kristjanson, P. M., 2003. "Mapping livestock-oriented agricultural production systems for the developing world," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 39-63, July.
  2. Kiniry, James R. & Major, D. J. & Izarralde, R. C. & Williams, J. R. & Gassman, Philip W. & Morrison, M. & Bergentine, R. & Zentner, R. P., 1995. "Epic Model Parameters for Cereal, Oilseed, and Forage Crops in the Northern Great Plains Region," Staff General Research Papers 894, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Schneider, Uwe A. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Schmid, Erwin, 2007. "Agricultural sector analysis on greenhouse gas mitigation in US agriculture and forestry," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 128-140, May.
  4. Bouwman, A.F. & Van der Hoek, K.W. & Eickhout, B. & Soenario, I., 2005. "Exploring changes in world ruminant production systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 121-153, May.
  5. Schneider, Uwe A. & Havlík, Petr & Schmid, Erwin & Valin, Hugo & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael & Böttcher, Hannes & Skalský, Rastislav & Balkovic, Juraj & Sauer, Timm & Fritz, Steffen, 2011. "Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 204-215, February.
  6. Keyzer, M.A. & Merbis, M.D. & Pavel, I.F.P.W. & van Wesenbeeck, C.F.A., 2005. "Diet shifts towards meat and the effects on cereal use: can we feed the animals in 2030?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 187-202, November.
  7. Havlík, Petr & Schneider, Uwe A. & Schmid, Erwin & Böttcher, Hannes & Fritz, Steffen & Skalský, Rastislav & Aoki, Kentaro & Cara, Stéphane De & Kindermann, Georg & Kraxner, Florian & Leduc, Sylvai, 2011. "Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5690-5702, October.
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