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Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption

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Author Info

  • Schneider, Uwe A.
  • Havlík, Petr
  • Schmid, Erwin
  • Valin, Hugo
  • Mosnier, Aline
  • Obersteiner, Michael
  • Böttcher, Hannes
  • Skalský, Rastislav
  • Balkovic, Juraj
  • Sauer, Timm
  • Fritz, Steffen

Abstract

Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.

Volume (Year): 104 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 204-215

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Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:104:y:2011:i:2:p:204-215

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy

Related research

Keywords: Food security Population growth Irrigation water scarcity Income development Engel curve Agricultural sector optimization;

References

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  1. Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana & Viguier, Laurent, 1999. "Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 585-601, October.
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  6. Wiborg, Torben & McCarl, Bruce A. & Rasmussen, Svend & Schneider, Uwe A., 2005. "Aggregation and Calibration of Agricultural Sector Models Through Crop Mix Restrictions and Marginal Profit Adjustments," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24567, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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Cited by:
  1. A. Mosnier & P. Havlík & M. Obersteiner & K. Aoki & E. Schmid & S. Fritz & I. McCallum & S. Leduc, 2014. "Modeling Impact of Development Trajectories and a Global Agreement on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation on Congo Basin Forests by 2030," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(4), pages 505-525, April.
  2. Hovhannisyan, Vardges & Bozic, Marin, 2013. "On Price Endogeneity in the Analysis of Food Demand in China," Staff Papers 159771, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  3. Mosnier, A. & Havlík, P. & Valin, H. & Baker, J. & Murray, B. & Feng, S. & Obersteiner, M. & McCarl, B.A. & Rose, S.K. & Schneider, U.A., 2013. "Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 602-614.
  4. Havlik, Petr & Herrero, Mario & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael & Schmid, Erwin & Fuss, Sabine & Schneider, Uwe A., 2011. "Production system based global livestock sector modeling: Good news for the future," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114552, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Martínez-Alvarez, V. & García-Bastida, P.A. & Martin-Gorriz, B. & Soto-García, M., 2014. "Adaptive strategies of on-farm water management under water supply constraints in south-eastern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 59-67.
  6. Franziska Strauss & Erwin Schmid & Elena Moltchanova & Herbert Formayer & Xiuying Wang, 2012. "Modeling climate change and biophysical impacts of crop production in the Austrian Marchfeld Region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 641-664, April.
  7. Lichtenberg, Erik & Strand, Ivar E., Jr., 2000. "Joint Adoption Of Multiple Technologies: A Dual, Latent Demand Approach," Working Papers 28566, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  8. Henseler, Martin & Dechow, Rene, 2014. "Simulation of regional nitrous oxide emissions from German agricultural mineral soils: A linkage between an agro-economic model and an empirical emission model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 70-82.
  9. Balkovič, Juraj & van der Velde, Marijn & Schmid, Erwin & Skalský, Rastislav & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael & Stürmer, Bernhard & Xiong, Wei, 2013. "Pan-European crop modelling with EPIC: Implementation, up-scaling and regional crop yield validation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 61-75.

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