Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption
AbstractOver the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Agricultural Systems.
Volume (Year): 104 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy
Food security Population growth Irrigation water scarcity Income development Engel curve Agricultural sector optimization;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Criqui, Patrick & Mima, Silvana & Viguier, Laurent, 1999. "Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 585-601, October.
- Hayri Önal & Bruce A. McCarl, 1991. "Exact Aggregation in Mathematical Programming Sector Models," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 39(2), pages 319-334, 07.
- Edwin van der Werf & Sonja Peterson, 2009.
"Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: an overview,"
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(5), pages 507-517, 09.
- Edwin van der Werf & Sonja Peterson, 2007. "Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: An Overview," Kiel Working Papers 1323, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Edwin van der Werf & Sonja Peterson, 2007. "Modeling Linkages Between Climate Policy and Land Use: An Overview," Working Papers 2007.56, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- van der Werf, Edwin & Peterson, Sonja, 2009. "Modeling linkages between climate policy and land use: An overview," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32535, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2003.
"Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems,"
2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa
25905, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
- Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Eales, James, 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," GTAP Working Papers 1182, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Wiborg, Torben & McCarl, Bruce A. & Rasmussen, Svend & Schneider, Uwe A., 2005. "Aggregation and Calibration of Agricultural Sector Models Through Crop Mix Restrictions and Marginal Profit Adjustments," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24567, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Henseler, Martin & Dechow, Rene, 2014. "Simulation of regional nitrous oxide emissions from German agricultural mineral soils: A linkage between an agro-economic model and an empirical emission model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 70-82.
- Martínez-Alvarez, V. & García-Bastida, P.A. & Martin-Gorriz, B. & Soto-García, M., 2014. "Adaptive strategies of on-farm water management under water supply constraints in south-eastern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 59-67.
- Hovhannisyan, Vardges & Bozic, Marin, 2013. "On Price Endogeneity in the Analysis of Food Demand in China," Staff Papers 159771, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Balkovič, Juraj & van der Velde, Marijn & Schmid, Erwin & Skalský, Rastislav & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael & Stürmer, Bernhard & Xiong, Wei, 2013. "Pan-European crop modelling with EPIC: Implementation, up-scaling and regional crop yield validation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 61-75.
- Mosnier, A. & Havlík, P. & Valin, H. & Baker, J. & Murray, B. & Feng, S. & Obersteiner, M. & McCarl, B.A. & Rose, S.K. & Schneider, U.A., 2013. "Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 602-614.
- Franziska Strauss & Erwin Schmid & Elena Moltchanova & Herbert Formayer & Xiuying Wang, 2012. "Modeling climate change and biophysical impacts of crop production in the Austrian Marchfeld Region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 641-664, April.
- Havlik, Petr & Herrero, Mario & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael & Schmid, Erwin & Fuss, Sabine & Schneider, Uwe A., 2011. "Production system based global livestock sector modeling: Good news for the future," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114552, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Lichtenberg, Erik & Strand, Ivar E., Jr., 2000. "Joint Adoption Of Multiple Technologies: A Dual, Latent Demand Approach," Working Papers 28566, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.