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Linking three market models to project Russian and Ukrainian wheat markets till 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Wolf, Verena
  • Deppermann, Andre
  • Tabeau, Andrzej
  • Banse, Martin
  • van Berkum, Siemen
  • Haß, Marlen
  • Havlik, Petr
  • Philippidis, George
  • Salamon, Petra
  • Verma, Monika

Abstract

Several economic models project global agricultural market developments. In each of these models, certain relevant aspects influencing agricultural markets are underrepresented. In order to overcome this, three economic models are linked to each other, namely GLOBIOM, AGMEMOD and MAGNET. The method to link these models consists of several parts: mapping, harmonization, data transfer, scenario development and successive model runs. The developed Model Junction Linkage Tool (MOJITO) facilitates and automates these parts. In addition to a common baseline scenario, two scenarios reflecting two important factors in the future development of wheat markets in Ukraine and Russia are analyzed. While the baseline results differ widely between the models the scenarios develop in a similar fashion.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolf, Verena & Deppermann, Andre & Tabeau, Andrzej & Banse, Martin & van Berkum, Siemen & Haß, Marlen & Havlik, Petr & Philippidis, George & Salamon, Petra & Verma, Monika, 2016. "Linking three market models to project Russian and Ukrainian wheat markets till 2030," 155th Seminar, September 19-21, 2016, Kiev, Ukraine 245878, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa155:245878
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.245878
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balkovič, Juraj & van der Velde, Marijn & Schmid, Erwin & Skalský, Rastislav & Khabarov, Nikolay & Obersteiner, Michael & Stürmer, Bernhard & Xiong, Wei, 2013. "Pan-European crop modelling with EPIC: Implementation, up-scaling and regional crop yield validation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 61-75.
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    1. Ruth Delzeit & Robert Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel &, 2020. "Linking Global CGE Models with Sectoral Models to Generate Baseline Scenarios: Approaches, Challenges, and Opportunities," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 162-195, June.
    2. Ruth Delzeit & Roberto Beach & Ruben Bibas & Wolfgang Britz & Jean Chateau & Florian Freund & Julien Lefevre & Franziska Schuenemann & Timothy Sulser & Hugo Valin & Bas van Ruijven & Matthias Weitzel , 2020. "Linking global CGE models with sectoral models to generate baseline scenarios: Approaches, opportunities and pitfalls," Post-Print hal-03128285, HAL.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; International Relations/Trade;

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