Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis
AbstractThe paper assess uncertainty of future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe. To assess the possible future development of agricultural production and land for the period 2000 – 2030, two contrasting scenarios are constructed. The scenarios storylines lead to different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of them are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty of the scenario outcomes. In this study we use sensitivity analysis to estimate the uncertainty of agricultural land use.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 116th Seminar, October 27-30, 2010, Parma, Italy with number 95235.
Date of creation: 27 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
spatial uncertainty; scenario approach; sensitivity analysis.; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Labor and Human Capital;
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