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Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis

Author

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  • Tabeau, Andrzej A.
  • Hatna, E.
  • Verburg, Peter H.

Abstract

The paper assess uncertainty of future spatial allocation of agricultural land in Europe. To assess the possible future development of agricultural production and land for the period 2000 – 2030, two contrasting scenarios are constructed. The scenarios storylines lead to different measurable assumptions concerning scenario specific drivers (variables) and parameters. Many of them are estimations and thus include a certain level of uncertainty regarding their true values. This leads to uncertainty of the scenario outcomes. In this study we use sensitivity analysis to estimate the uncertainty of agricultural land use.

Suggested Citation

  • Tabeau, Andrzej A. & Hatna, E. & Verburg, Peter H., 2010. "Assessing spatial uncertainties of land allocation using the scenario approach and sensitivity analysis," 116th Seminar, October 27-30, 2010, Parma, Italy 95235, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa116:95235
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.95235
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28241, December.
    2. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11855, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zambon, Ilaria & Benedetti, Anna & Ferrara, Carlotta & Salvati, Luca, 2018. "Soil Matters? A Multivariate Analysis of Socioeconomic Constraints to Urban Expansion in Mediterranean Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 173-183.
    2. Changgang Ma & Min Zhou, 2018. "A GIS-Based Interval Fuzzy Linear Programming for Optimal Land Resource Allocation at a City Scale," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 143-166, January.
    3. Bingkui Qiu & Shasha Lu & Min Zhou & Lu Zhang & Yu Deng & Ci Song & Zuo Zhang, 2015. "A Hybrid Inexact Optimization Method for Land-Use Allocation in Association with Environmental/Ecological Requirements at a Watershed Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Jiangfeng She & Zhongqing Guan & Fangfang Cai & Lijie Pu & Junzhong Tan & Tao Chen, 2017. "Simulation of Land Use Changes in a Coastal Reclaimed Area with Dynamic Shorelines," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Holman, I.P. & Brown, C & Janes, V & Sandars, D, 2017. "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 126-135.
    6. Xinli Ke & Liye Wang & Yanchun Ma & Kunpeng Pu & Ting Zhou & Bangyong Xiao & Jiahe Wang, 2019. "Impacts of Strict Cropland Protection on Water Yield: A Case Study of Wuhan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, January.
    7. James D. A. Millington & Hang Xiong & Steve Peterson & Jeremy Woods, 2017. "Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, August.
    8. Min Zhou & Shukui Tan & Lizao Tao & Xiangbo Zhu & Ghulam Akhmat, 2015. "An interval fuzzy land-use allocation model (IFLAM) for Beijing in association with environmental and ecological consideration under uncertainty," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2269-2290, November.
    9. Senetra Adam & Szczepańska Agnieszka & Wasilewicz-Pszczółkowska Monika, 2014. "Analysis of changes in the land use structure of developed and urban areas in Eastern Poland," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 24(24), pages 1-12, June.
    10. Xin Lao & Tiyan Shen & Hengyu Gu, 2018. "Prospect on China’s Urban System by 2020: Evidence from the Prediction Based on Internal Migration Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, February.

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    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Community/Rural/Urban Development; Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety; Labor and Human Capital;
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