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Agricultural Growth in India: Examining the Post-Green Revolution Transition

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  • Rada, Nicholas E.

Abstract

India has enjoyed rapid economic growth over the past forty years, GDP per capita (PPP$) accelerating from less than 1% in the 1970s to over 5.8% in the 2000s. As incomes have risen, consumer demand has shifted from staple grains toward higher valued foods, such as horticultural and livestock products. Indian farmers appear to be meeting these new growth opportunities. But as production shifts, questions are being raised about agriculture’s ability to meet the basic food needs of India’s 1.24 billion citizens. Central to these questions has been the waning impact of cereal grain technologies typified by the Green Revolution. Our purpose is to examine the productivity growth implications of farmers’ decisions to diversify production and to assess new sources of growth in Indian agriculture. In doing so, we construct new production and productivity accounts and evaluate total factor productivity (TFP) growth, from 1980 to 2008, at the national, regional, and state levels. Results suggest renewed growth in aggregate TFP growth despite a slowdown in cereal grain yield growth. TFP growth appears to have shifted to the Indian South and West, led by growth in horticultural and livestock products.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its series 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. with number 149547.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:149547

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Keywords: agricultural growth; India; Tornqvist-Thiel; TFP growth; agricultural diversification; International Development; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis;

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  1. Evenson, Robert E. & Pray, Carl E. & Rosegrant, Mark W., 1999. "Agricultural research and productivity growth in India:," Research reports 109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  2. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
  3. Shreedhar, Ganga & Gupta, Neelmani & Pullabhotla, Hemant & Ganesh-Kumar, A. & Gulati, Ashok, 2012. "A review of input and output policies for cereals production in India:," IFPRI discussion papers 1159, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Kumar, Praduman & Mittal, Surabhi & Hossain, Mahabub, 2008. "Agricultural Growth Accounting and Total Factor Productivity in South Asia: A Review and Policy Implications," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 21(2), December.
  5. Easter, K. William & Abel, Martin E. & Norton, George W., 1976. "Regional Differences In Agricultural Productivity In Selected Areas Of India," Staff Papers 13887, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
  6. Shenggen Fan & Peter Hazell & Sukhadeo Thorat, 2000. "Government Spending, Growth and Poverty in Rural India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 1038-1051.
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