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Decoupled farm payments and the Role of Base Updating under uncertainty

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  • Bhaskar, Arathi
  • Beghin, John C.

Abstract

In the context of the U.S farm policy, this paper analyzes the effect that expectations about base updating in future policies have on a farmer’s acreage decision in the presence of price, yield and policy uncertainty. We consider a risk neutral farmer producing a single crop whose income consists of market revenue and government payments. We consider two policy regimes. Decisions made in the current policy regime are linked to government payments in the future policy regime through the possibility of a base update in the future regime. There is policy uncertainty about the possibility of a base update being allowed in the future. We combine stochastic dynamic programming with present value calculations to link current acreage decisions to future program payments. The average optimal planted acreage is weakly increasing in the subjective probability of the future base update. The maximum percentage increase in the average optimal planted acreage is 6%.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida with number 6339.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea08:6339

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Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance;

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References

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  1. Sumner, Daniel A., 2003. "Implications of the US Farm Bill of 2002 for agricultural trade and trade negotiations," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(1), March.
  2. David A. Hennessy & Bruce A. Babcock & Dermot J. Hayes, 1995. "Budgetary and Resource Allocation Effects of Revenue Assurance," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 95-wp130, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  3. Barry K. Goodwin & Ashok K. Mishra, 2006. "Are “Decoupled” Farm Program Payments Really Decoupled? An Empirical Evaluation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 73-89.
  4. Bruce A. Babcock & David A. Hennessy, 1996. "Input Demand under Yield and Revenue Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 416-427.
  5. Daniel A. Sumner, 2003. "Implications of the US Farm Bill of 2002 for agricultural trade and trade negotiations," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(1), pages 99-122, 03.
  6. Hisham El-Osta & Ashok Mishra & Mary Ahearn, 2004. "Labor Supply by Farm Operators Under “Decoupled” Farm Program Payments," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 367-385, 08.
  7. Michael J. Roberts & Barrett Kirwan & Jeffrey Hopkins, 2003. "The Incidence of Government Program Payments on Agricultural Land Rents: The Challenges of Identification," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(3), pages 762-769.
  8. David A. Hennessy, 1998. "The Production Effects of Agricultural Income Support Policies under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 46-57.
  9. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
  10. Bruce A. Babcock & Chad E. Hart, 2005. "How Much "Safety" Is Available under the U.S. Proposal to the WTO?," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-bp48, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  11. Joe Dewbre, 2006. "The Impact of Coupled and Decoupled Government Subsidies on Off-Farm Labor Participation of U.S. Farm Operators," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 393-408.
  12. Keith H. Coble & J. Corey Miller & M. Darren Hudson, 2008. "Decoupled Farm Payments and Expectations for Base Updating," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 27-42.
  13. Christopher R. McIntosh & Jason F. Shogren & Erik Dohlman, 2007. "Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1046-1057.
  14. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2009. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
  15. Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la & Sanford, Scott & Skinner, Robert A. & Westcott, Paul C. & Lin, William W., 2000. "Supply Response Under The 1996 Farm Act And Implications For The U.S. Field Crops Sector," Technical Bulletins 33568, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  16. Roe, Terry & Somwaru, Agapi & Diao, Xinshen, 2002. "Do direct payments have intertemporal effects on U.S. agriculture?," TMD discussion papers 104, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  17. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2006. "Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 43-56.
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Cited by:
  1. Fabienne Femenia & Alexandre Gohin & Alain Carpentier, 2010. "The Decoupling of Farm Programs: Revisiting the Wealth Effect," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 836-848.
  2. Nordin, Martin, 2013. "Does the Decoupling Reform Affect Agricultural Employment in Sweden? Evidence from an Exogenous Change," Working Papers 2013:40, Lund University, Department of Economics.

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