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Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty

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  • Arathi Bhaskar
  • John C. Beghin

Abstract

We analyze the coupling effect of expectations about base acreage and yield updating in future farm policy on production decisions in the presence of price, yield, and policy uncertainty for a risk-averse farmer producing a single crop. The farmer receives market revenue and government payments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, optimum decisions under present value calculations positively link current acreage and fertilizer decisions to future government payments through expected updates of base acreage and yield in the future regime. Moving from a zero probability of updating to a probability of one increases optimum acreage and yield by 6.25% and 0.134%, respectively. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 92 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 849-858

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:92:y:2010:i:3:p:849-858

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  1. Bruce A. Babcock & Joseph A. Herriges, 1994. "Input Demand Under Yield and Revenue Insurance," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 94-wp127, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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  4. Christopher R. McIntosh & Jason F. Shogren & Erik Dohlman, 2007. "Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1046-1057.
  5. Michael J. Roberts & Barrett Kirwan & Jeffrey Hopkins, 2003. "The Incidence of Government Program Payments on Agricultural Land Rents: The Challenges of Identification," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(3), pages 762-769.
  6. Barry K. Goodwin & Ashok K. Mishra & Fran�ois N. Ortalo-Magné, 2003. "What's Wrong with Our Models of Agricultural Land Values?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(3), pages 744-752.
  7. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2009. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
  8. Torre Ugarte, Daniel de la & Sanford, Scott & Skinner, Robert A. & Westcott, Paul C. & Lin, William W., 2000. "Supply Response Under The 1996 Farm Act And Implications For The U.S. Field Crops Sector," Technical Bulletins 33568, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  9. Bruce A. Babcock & Chad E. Hart, 2005. "How Much "Safety" Is Available under the U.S. Proposal to the WTO?," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-bp48, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  10. Barry K. Goodwin & Ashok K. Mishra, 2006. "Are “Decoupled” Farm Program Payments Really Decoupled? An Empirical Evaluation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 73-89.
  11. Roe, Terry & Somwaru, Agapi & Diao, Xinshen, 2002. "Do direct payments have intertemporal effects on U.S. agriculture?," TMD discussion papers 104, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  12. Paolo Sckokai & Daniele Moro, 2006. "Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 43-56.
  13. Joe Dewbre, 2006. "The Impact of Coupled and Decoupled Government Subsidies on Off-Farm Labor Participation of U.S. Farm Operators," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(2), pages 393-408.
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Cited by:
  1. Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Peckham, Janet G., 2012. "Impacts of U.S. Agricultural and Ethanol Policies on Farmland Values and Rental Rates," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124579, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Mary, Sébastien & Mishra, Ashok & Paloma, Sergio Gomez y, 2013. "An impact assessment of EU's CAP income stabilisation payments," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149691, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Jaclyn D. Kropp & James B. Whitaker, 2011. "The impact of decoupled payments on the cost of operating capital," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(1), pages 25-40, May.
  4. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2007. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Staff General Research Papers 12841, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Rizov, Marian & Pokrivcak, Jan & Ciaian, Pavel, 2012. "CAP subsidies and productivity of the EU farms," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 124970, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  6. Rizov, Marian & Pokrivcak, Jan & Ciaian, Pavel, 2013. "CAP Subsidies and the Productivity of EU Farms," Factor Markets Working Papers 148, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  7. Peckham, Janet G. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2012. "Decoupled Direct Payments under Base Acreage and Yield Updating Uncertainty: An Investigation of Agricultural Chemical Use," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(2), August.
  8. Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Katchova, Ani L., 2011. "The Effects of Direct Payments on Liquidity and Repayment Capacity of Beginning Farmers," Staff Papers 164516, University of Kentucky, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  9. Just, David R. & Kropp, Jaclyn D., 2009. "Production Incentives from Static Decoupling: Entry, Exit and Use Exclusion Restrictions," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49158, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  10. Mitchell, Paul D. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O., 2010. "A Real Options Framework for Analyzing Program Participation as Human Capital Investments: The Case of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program," Staff Paper Series 547, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  11. Carpentier, Alain & Gohin, Alexandre & Heinzel, Christoph, 2012. "Production Effects of Direct Payments to Active Farmers: a Microeconomic Dynamic and Stochastic Analysis," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122447, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  12. Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Whitaker, James B., 2009. "The Impact of Decoupled Payments on the Cost of Operating Capital," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49311, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  13. Moro, Daniele & Sckokai, Paolo, 2013. "The impact of decoupled payments on farm choices: Conceptual and methodological challenges," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 28-38.
  14. Mitchell, Paul D. & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Coble, Keith H. & Knight, Thomas O., 2011. "Analyzing Farmer Participation Intentions and Enrollment Rates for the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) Program," Staff Paper Series 560, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.

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