Convergence dynamics of output: Do stochastic shocks and social polarization matter?
AbstractThis paper seeks to address two neglected aspects of convergence dynamics of cross-country per capita income. First, we allow evolutionary path of per capita income to contain stochastic shocks which may not converge fast enough to the long-run mean. Under this condition, we show that the conventional inference on Ï convergence can be enlarged with more predictive power if one assumes, along with the necessary condition of Î² convergence, that the stochastic shocks are covariance stationary. Second, we argue that for economies to (conditionally) converge, they need to be sufficiently cohesive so that the growth of stochastic shocks is not sustained through complex socio-economic interactions. Empirical examination is carried out by analyzing time series properties of state per capita income in India and performing convergence analysis by conditioning a constructed social cohesion index based on indicators collected from the National Sample Survey. It is demonstrated that when the economy faces monotonic social segmentation, persistence of stochastic shocks considerably affects speed of per capita output convergence.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its series Working Papers with number 12-10.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Parhi, Mamata & Diebolt, Claude & Mishra, Tapas & Gupta, Prashant, 2013. "Convergence dynamics of output: Do stochastic shocks and social polarization matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 42-51.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-20 (All new papers)
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