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Contraception and Fertility: Household Production under Uncertainty

In: Household Production and Consumption

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  • Robert T. Michael
  • Robert J. Willis

Abstract

Over the past century fertility behavior in the United Stated has undergone profound changes Measured by cohort fertility the average number of children per married woman had declined from about 5.5 children at the time of the Civil War to 2.4 children at the time of the Great Depression. It is seldom emphasized however that an even greater relative change took place in the dispersion of fertility among these women: the percentage of women with, say, seven or more children declined from 36% to under 6%. While students of population have offered reasonably convincing explanations for the decline in fertility over time, they have not succeeded in explaining the fluctuations in the trend and have made surprisingly little effort to explain the large and systematic decline in the dispersion of fertility over time. In this paper we attempt to study contraception behavior and its effects on fertility. One of the effects on which we focus considerable attention is the dispersion or variance in fertility. Our analysis is applied to cross-sectional data but it also provides an explanation for the decline in the variance in fertility over time.
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Suggested Citation

  • Robert T. Michael & Robert J. Willis, 1976. "Contraception and Fertility: Household Production under Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Household Production and Consumption, pages 25-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:3960
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mincer, Jacob & Polachek, Solomon, 1974. "Family Investment in Human Capital: Earnings of Women," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 76-108, Part II, .
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucie Schmidt, 2008. "Risk preferences and the timing of marriage and childbearing," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(2), pages 439-460, May.
    2. James J. Heckman & Robert J. Willis, 1976. "Estimation of a Stochastic Model of Reproduction: An Econometric Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Household Production and Consumption, pages 99-146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Martha J. Bailey & Olga Malkova & Zoë M. McLaren, 2017. "Does Parents’ Access to Family Planning Increase Children’s Opportunities? Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X," NBER Working Papers 23971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Martha J. Bailey, 2012. "Reexamining the Impact of Family Planning Programs on US Fertility: Evidence from the War on Poverty and the Early Years of Title X," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 62-97, April.
    5. Wanchuan Lin & Juan Pantano & Shuqiao Sun, 2020. "Birth order and unwanted fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 413-440, April.
    6. Yoram Porath, 1975. "First-generation effects on second-generation fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 12(3), pages 397-405, August.
    7. Bailey, Martha J., 2022. "Economic opportunity begins with contraception: Comment on “Intergenerational Mobility Begins Before Birth” by Ananth Seshadri, Anson Zhou," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 21-23.
    8. Richard Easterlin & Robert Pollak & Michael L. Wachter, 1980. "Toward a More General Economic Model of Fertility Determination: Endogenous Preferences and Natural Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries, pages 81-150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Mølland, Eirin, 2016. "Benefits from delay? The effect of abortion availability on young women and their children," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 6-28.
    10. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Kim, Minkyong, 2023. "Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Gauthier T. Kashalala & Steven F. Koch, 2014. "The Economic Approach to Fertility: A Causal Mediation Analysis," Working Papers 201434, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    13. Luca, Dara Lee & Stevens, Jack & Rotz, Dana & Goesling, Brian & Lutz, Robyn, 2021. "Evaluating teen options for preventing pregnancy: Impacts and mechanisms," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha, 2014. "Contraception and the fertility transition," ISU General Staff Papers 201410220700001028, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Martha J. Bailey, 2010. ""Momma's Got the Pill": How Anthony Comstock and Griswold v. Connecticut Shaped US Childbearing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 98-129, March.
    16. Martha J. Bailey & Jason M. Lindo, 2017. "Access and Use of Contraception and Its Effects on Women’s Outcomes in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 23465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    18. Seshadri, Ananth & Zhou, Anson, 2022. "Intergenerational mobility begins before birth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1-20.
    19. Julio Cáceres-Delpiano, 2011. "Is there a cost associated with an increase in family size beyond child investment? Evidence from developing countries," Working Papers 1117, Banco de España.
    20. B. Wolfe & S. Zuvekas, "undated". "Nonmarket outcomes of schooling," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1065-95, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
    21. Robert T. Michael, 1977. "Two Papers on the Recent Rise in U.S. Divorce Rate," NBER Working Papers 0202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Alam, Shamma Adeeb & Pörtner, Claus C., 2018. "Income shocks, contraceptive use, and timing of fertility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 96-103.
    23. Cáceres-Delpiano Julio, 2012. "Impacts of Family Size on the Family as a Whole: Evidence from the Developing World," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, May.
    24. Robert H. Haveman & Barbara L. Wolfe, 2002. "Social and nonmarket benefits from education in an advanced economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 47(Jun), pages 97-142.

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