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The Armey Curve in Bulgaria (2000-18) – Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results

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  • Vasilev, Aleksandar

Abstract

In this paper we provide a theoretical basis for the so-called” Armey curve,” the inverted U-shape relationship between the level of government purchases and GDP growth, named after Armey (1995). We use an otherwise standard Keynesian model, augmented with a quadratic relationship between investment and lagged government expenditure, which was documented empirically. This modelling approach is a useful shortcut that aims to capture the common link shared by both variables, namely their dependence on the real interest rate, as suggested also by the extended static IS-LM model. This resulting dynamic relationship is a newly documented stylized fact, at least in Bulgarian data for the period 2000-2018, and the source in the extended Keynesian model that generates an Armey curve for Bulgaria.

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  • Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "The Armey Curve in Bulgaria (2000-18) – Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Results," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(1(21)), pages 19-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:222007
    DOI: 10.14505/tpref.v11.1(21).02
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    2. Folster, Stefan & Henrekson, Magnus, 2001. "Growth effects of government expenditure and taxation in rich countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1501-1520, August.
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    8. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2015. "Modeling Real Private Consumption Expenditure in Bulgaria after the Currency Board Implementation (1997-2005)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 81-89.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Armey curve; GDP growth; government purchases; Bulgaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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