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A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution

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  • Jonathan Gruber

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics, 50, Memorial Drive, Building E52, Room 355, Cambridge MA, 02142-1347, USA)

Abstract

One of the most important behavioral parameters in macroeconomics is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS). Starting with the seminal work of Hall (Hall, R., 1978, Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle — Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence,Journal of Political Economy86, 971–987), researchers have used an Euler equation framework to estimate the EIS, relating the growth rate of consumption to the after-tax interest rate facing consumers. This large literature has, however, produced very mixed results, perhaps due to an important limitation: The impact of the interest rate on consumption or savings is identified by time-series movements in interest rates. Yet the factors that cause time-series movements in interest rates may themselves be correlated with consumption or savings decisions. I address this problem by using variation across individuals in the capital income tax rate. Conditional on observable characteristics of individuals, tax rate movements cause exogenous shifts in the after-tax interest rate. Using data on total non-durable consumption from the Consumer Expenditure Survey over two decades, I estimate a surprisingly high EIS of two. This finding is robust to a variety of specification checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Gruber, 2013. "A Tax-Based Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 1-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:qjfxxx:v:03:y:2013:i:01:n:s2010139213500018
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010139213500018
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
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    3. Carroll Christopher Dixon, 2001. "Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
    4. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 9373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Muhammet Fatih Guvenen, 2000. "Mismeasurement of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution:The Role of Limites Stock Market Participation," GSIA Working Papers 2000-E47, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    7. repec:pri:wwseco:dp231 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Douglas W. Elmendorf, "undated". "The Effect of Interest-Rate Changes on Household Saving and Consumption: A Survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 10 Dec 2019.
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