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The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports in South Africa

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  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, 0002, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, 0002, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Prudence S. Moyo

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, 0002, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Nehrunaman Pillay

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, 0002, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of real effective exchange rate uncertainty (REER) on aggregate exports of South Africa for the period 1986Q4–2013Q2. Using a bivariate framework where the structural vector autoregression (VAR) is modified to accommodate bivariate GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) errors, we find that exchange rate uncertainty has a significant and negative effect on exports. Comparing the response of exports to a shock in exchange rate from a model that includes the REER uncertainty with results from a model that restricts the coefficient of the exchange rate uncertainty to zero, we find that the response is more pronounced in the former model. Furthermore, real exports respond asymmetrically to negative and positive shocks of REER of the same size.

Suggested Citation

  • Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Prudence S. Moyo & Nehrunaman Pillay, 2015. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports in South Africa," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jicepx:v:06:y:2015:i:01:n:s1793993315500040
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793993315500040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Agathe Côté, "undated". "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ngondo, Mashilana & Khobai, Hlalefang, 2018. "The impact of exchange rate on exports in South Africa," MPRA Paper 85079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Julius Loermann, 2018. "The Impact of CHF/EUR Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Swiss Exports to the Eurozone: Evidence from a Threshold VAR," FIW Working Paper series 189, FIW, revised Feb 2019.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Arize, Augustine C., 2022. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    4. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    5. Izunna Chima Anyikwa & Lehlohonolo Domela, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows in BRICS economies," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 224-247, July.
    6. Julius Loermann, 2021. "The impact of CHF/EUR exchange rate uncertainty on Swiss exports to the Eurozone: evidence from a threshold VAR," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1363-1385, March.
    7. Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2018. "Forecasting (Good and Bad) Realized Exchange-Rate Volatility: Is there a Role for Realized Skewness and Kurtosis?," Working Papers 201879, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Goodness C. Aye & Laurence Harris, 2019. "The effect of real exchange rate volatility on income distribution in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Augustine C. Arize, 2020. "On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade Flows: Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(4), pages 913-939, March.
    10. Trust R. Mpofu, 2021. "The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1380-1401, May.
    11. Kenneth Chikezie Anyalechi & Emeka Okereke & Ikechukwu S. Nnamdi, 2020. "Export Trade and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 4(9), pages 222-227, September.
    12. Thobekile Qabhobho & Anokye M. Adam & Emmanuel Asafo-Adjei, 2023. "Do Local and International Shocks Matter in the Interconnectedness amid Exchange Rates and Energy Commodities? Insights into BRICS Economies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 666-678, November.
    13. Alegwu, Friday O. & Aye, Goodness C. & Asogwa, Benjamin C., 2017. "Asymmetric Effect of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Products Export: A Case Study," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 70(3), pages 261-279.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate uncertainty; real effective exchange rate; exports; bivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR; C32; E32; F1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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