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International Trade, Hedging and the Demand for Forward Contracts

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  • Eisenschmidt, Jens
  • Wälde, Klaus

Abstract

One of the main results of the literature on the effects of uncertainty on trade states that uncertainty should not matter in the presence of well developed forward markets. Empirical studies, however, do not support this result. We derive the demand for forward cover in a small open economy with terms of trade uncertainty. Adopting a standard and more realistic decision structure than the one usually used in this literature, we find that risk averse agents will not buy forwards at an unbiased price. Agents treat forward contracts as an asset rather than as an insurance. This is the reason why, when calibrating the model, only 17% of imports are covered by forwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Eisenschmidt, Jens & Wälde, Klaus, 2006. "International Trade, Hedging and the Demand for Forward Contracts," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 69, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:69
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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