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International Trade, Hedging, and the Demand for Forward Contracts

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  • Jens Eisenschmidt
  • Klaus Wälde

Abstract

One of the main results of the literature on the effects of uncertainty on trade states that uncertainty should not matter in the presence of well-developed forward markets. Empirical studies, however, do not support this result. We derive the demand for forward cover in a small open economy with terms-of-trade uncertainty. Adopting a standard and more realistic decision structure than the one usually used in this literature, we find that risk-averse agents will not buy forwards at an unbiased price. Agents treat forward contracts as an asset rather than as an insurance. This is the reason why, when calibrating the model, only 17% of imports are covered by forwards. Copyright � 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation � 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 414-429

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:15:y:2007:i:2:p:414-429

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  1. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  2. Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1987. "Discriminating Monopoly, Forward Markets and International Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 459-68, June.
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  12. Benninga, Simon & Eldor, Rafael & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1985. "Optimal international hedging in commodity and currency forward markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 537-552, December.
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  14. Kawai, Masahiro & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1986. "International trade with forward-futures markets under exchange rate and price uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 83-98, February.
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