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Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment

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  • Wei Xie
  • Adam Rose
  • Shantong Li
  • Jianwu He
  • Ning Li
  • Tariq Ali

Abstract

This article analyzes the role of dynamic economic resilience in relation to recovery from disasters in general and illustrates its potential to reduce disaster losses in a case study of the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008. We first offer operational definitions of the concept linked to policies to promote increased levels and speed of investment in repair and reconstruction to implement this resilience. We then develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates major features of investment and traces the time‐path of the economy as it recovers with and without dynamic economic resilience. The results indicate that resilience strategies could have significantly reduced GDP losses from the Wenchuan earthquake by 47.4% during 2008–2011 by accelerating the pace of recovery and could have further reduced losses slightly by shortening the recovery by one year. The results can be generalized to conclude that shortening the recovery period is not nearly as effective as increasing reconstruction investment levels and steepening the time‐path of recovery. This is an important distinction that should be made in the typically vague and singular reference to increasing the speed of recovery in many definitions of dynamic resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xie & Adam Rose & Shantong Li & Jianwu He & Ning Li & Tariq Ali, 2018. "Dynamic Economic Resilience and Economic Recovery from Disasters: A Quantitative Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(6), pages 1306-1318, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:38:y:2018:i:6:p:1306-1318
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12948
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    1. Fangxin Yi & Yong Tu, 2018. "An Evaluation of the Paired Assistance to Disaster-Affected Areas Program in Disaster Recovery: The Case of the Wenchuan Earthquake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, November.
    2. Hui Zhang & Chris Dolan & Si Meng Jing & Justine Uyimleshi & Peter Dodd, 2019. "Bounce Forward: Economic Recovery in Post-Disaster Fukushima," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-24, November.
    3. Zhengtao Zhang & Ning Li & Peng Cui & Hong Xu & Yuan Liu & Xi Chen & Jieling Feng, 2019. "How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2443-2456, November.
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    7. Dennis Fok & André Stel & Andrew Burke & Roy Thurik, 2019. "How entry crowds and grows markets: the gradual disaster management view of market dynamics in the retail industry," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 1111-1138, December.
    8. Dormady, Noah C. & Rose, Adam & Roa-Henriquez, Alfredo & Morin, C. Blain, 2022. "The cost-effectiveness of economic resilience," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    9. Annetta Burger & Talha Oz & William G. Kennedy & Andrew T. Crooks, 2019. "Computational Social Science of Disasters: Opportunities and Challenges," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-31, April.
    10. Dan Wei & Zhenhua Chen & Adam Rose, 2020. "Evaluating the role of resilience in reducing economic losses from disasters: A multi‐regional analysis of a seaport disruption," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(6), pages 1691-1722, December.
    11. An-Ting Cheng, 2023. "Spatial Concentration in Relation to Industrial Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Grant Allan & Gioele Figus & Peter G. McGregor & J. Kim Swales, 2021. "Resilience in a behavioural/Keynesian regional model," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 53(4), pages 858-876, June.
    13. Mena, Carlos & Karatzas, Antonios & Hansen, Carsten, 2022. "International trade resilience and the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 77-91.
    14. Weilong Wang & Jianlong Wang & Shaersaikai Wulaer & Bing Chen & Xiaodong Yang, 2021. "The Effect of Innovative Entrepreneurial Vitality on Economic Resilience Based on a Spatial Perspective: Economic Policy Uncertainty as a Moderating Variable," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-23, September.
    15. Ling Tan & Ji Guo & Selvarajah Mohanarajah & Kun Zhou, 2021. "Can we detect trends in natural disaster management with artificial intelligence? A review of modeling practices," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2389-2417, July.
    16. Behnam Ghasemzadeh & Zahra Sadat Saeideh Zarabadi & Hamid Majedi & Mostafa Behzadfar & Ayyoob Sharifi, 2021. "A Framework for Urban Flood Resilience Assessment with Emphasis on Social, Economic and Institutional Dimensions: A Qualitative Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-27, July.
    17. Wang, Xueli & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Xuerong & Fan, Fei, 2022. "The spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in China and its impact on urban economic resilience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Bowman, Gary & Foulser-Piggott, Roxane & Beamish, Paul W, 2023. "Natural disasters and MNE internalization: Reoptimizing subsidiary governance," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2).
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