IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/revfec/v28y2016i1p1-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?

Author

Listed:
  • Paul J. Haensly

Abstract

A Treasury Inflation‐Protected Security (TIPS) is virtually risk free. As an obligation of the U.S. Treasury, it is mostly free of default risk. As an inflation‐indexed security held to maturity, it is risk free in terms of purchasing power. However, investing in a TIPS‐only portfolio for retirement is not risk free. This paper presents the results of a simulation analysis designed to evaluate the performance of a portfolio of inflation‐indexed Treasury coupon bonds. This study demonstrates that significant shortfall risk exists for TIPS‐only portfolios across a range of savings plans and the securities selection rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul J. Haensly, 2016. "Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:28:y:2016:i:1:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rfe.2015.09.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rfe.2015.09.003
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rfe.2015.09.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D. D. Evans, 1998. "Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 187-218, February.
    2. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    3. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
    4. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium [Do macro variables, asset markets or surveys forecast inflation better?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 755-806.
    5. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    6. A. L. Robb & J. B. Burbidge, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Retirement," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(3), pages 522-542, August.
    7. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    8. William Dudley & Michelle Steinberg Ezer & Jennifer E. Roush, 2009. "The case for TIPS: an examination of the costs and benefits," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 15(Jul), pages 1-17.
    9. Roll, Richard, 1972. "Interest Rates on Monetary Assets and Commodity Price Index Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 251-277, May.
    10. William Miles & Chu-Ping C. Vijverberg, 2009. "Changing Inflation Dynamics and Uncertainty in the United States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(3), pages 736-749, January.
    11. B. Douglas Bernheim & Jonathan Skinner & Steven Weinberg, 2001. "What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth among U.S. Households?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 832-857, September.
    12. Chengsi Zhang & Joel Clovis, 2009. "Modeling US inflation dynamics: persistence and monetary policy regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 455-477, May.
    13. Milevsky,Moshe A., 2006. "The Calculus of Retirement Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521842587.
    14. Kandel, Shmuel & Ofer, Aharon R & Sarig, Oded, 1993. "Learning from Trading," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 507-526.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haensly, Paul J., 2016. "Is a pure TIPS strategy truly risk free?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    3. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    4. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.
    5. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    6. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    7. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    9. Moerman, Gerard A. & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2010. "Inflation risk and international asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 840-855, April.
    10. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    11. Gimeno, Ricardo & Ibáñez, Alfredo, 2018. "The eurozone (expected) inflation: An option's eyes view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 70-92.
    12. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2012. "Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 634-657, May.
    13. Azoulay, Eddy & Brenner, Menachem & Landskroner, Yoram & Stein, Roy, 2014. "Inflation risk premium implied by options," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 90-102.
    14. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Comparing inflation and price-level targeting: A comprehensive review of the literature," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Boons, Martijn & Duarte, Fernando & de Roon, Frans & Szymanowska, Marta, 2020. "Time-varying inflation risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 444-470.
    16. Ho, Hsiao-Wei & Huang, Henry H. & Yildirim, Yildiray, 2014. "Affine model of inflation-indexed derivatives and inflation risk premium," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 159-169.
    17. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España.
    18. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    19. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2006. "The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 203, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Hemert, Otto Van & Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van, 2009. "Mortgage timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 292-324, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:28:y:2016:i:1:p:1-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1873-5924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.