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A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation

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  • Bahman Rostami‐Tabar
  • Mohamed Zied Babai
  • Aris Syntetos
  • Yves Ducq

Abstract

Earlier research on the effects of nonoverlapping temporal aggregation on demand forecasting showed the benefits associated with such an approach under a stationary AR(1) or MA(1) processes for decision making conducted at the disaggregate level. The first objective of this note is to extend those important results by considering a more general underlying demand process. The second objective is to assess the conditions under which aggregation may be a preferable approach for improving decision making at the aggregate level as well. We confirm the validity of previous results under more general conditions, and we show the increased benefit resulting from forecasting by temporal aggregation at lower frequency time units. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 489–500, 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Bahman Rostami‐Tabar & Mohamed Zied Babai & Aris Syntetos & Yves Ducq, 2014. "A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 61(7), pages 489-500, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:navres:v:61:y:2014:i:7:p:489-500
    DOI: 10.1002/nav.21598
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Bahman Rostami‐Tabar & M. Zied Babai & Aris Syntetos & Yves Ducq, 2013. "Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 60(6), pages 479-498, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Disney, Stephen M., 2023. "On the order-up-to policy with intermittent integer demand and logically consistent forecasts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    2. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Babai, M. Zied & Ali, Mohammad & Boylan, John E., 2019. "The impact of temporal aggregation on supply chains with ARMA(1,1) demand processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(3), pages 920-932.
    3. Babai, M. Zied & Dai, Yong & Li, Qinyun & Syntetos, Aris & Wang, Xun, 2022. "Forecasting of lead-time demand variance: Implications for safety stock calculations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(3), pages 846-861.
    4. Hakeem‐Ur Rehman & Guohua Wan & Raza Rafique, 2023. "A hybrid approach with step‐size aggregation to forecasting hierarchical time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 176-192, January.

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