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What makes a blockbuster? Economic analysis of film success in the United Kingdom

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Author Info
Alan Collins (Department of Economics, University of Portsmouth, Milton, Southsea, Hants, UK)
Chris Hand (Department of Economics, University of Portsmouth, Milton, Southsea, Hants, UK)
Martin C. Snell (Department of Economics, University of Portsmouth, Milton, Southsea, Hants, UK)

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Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to evaluate whether a film's commercial performance can be forecast. The statistical distribution of film revenues in the UK is examined and found to have unbounded variance. This undermines much of the existing work relating a film's performance to its identifiable attributes within an OLS model. We adopt De Vany and Walls' approach and transform the revenue data into a binary variable and estimate the probability that a film's revenue will exceed a given threshold value; in other words, the probability of a blockbuster. Furthermore, we provide a sensitivity analysis around these threshold values. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/mde.1069
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Managerial and Decision Economics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2002)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 343-354
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Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:23:y:2002:i:6:p:343-354

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Olivier V. Pictet & Michel M. Dacorogna & Ulrich A. Muller, 1996. "Heavy tails in high-frequency financial data," Working Papers 1996-12-11, Olsen and Associates. [Downloadable!]
  2. Smith, Sharon P & Smith, V Kerry, 1986. "Successful Movies: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 501-07, May.
  3. De Vany, Arthur & Walls, W David, 1996. "Bose-Einstein Dynamics and Adaptive Contracting in the Motion Picture Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(439), pages 1493-1514, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Caroline Elliott & Rob Simmons, 2008. "Determinants of UK Box Office Success: The Impact of Quality Signals," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 93-111, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Caroline Elliott & Rob Simmons, 2007. "Determinants of UK box office success: the impact of quality signals," Working Papers 004730, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alan Collins & Chris Hand, 2005. "Analyzing moviegoing demand: an individual-level cross-sectional approach," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 319-330. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-1.

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