IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jintdv/v17y2005i4p553-574.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transition, savings and growth in Vietnam: a three-gap analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ardeshir Sepehri

    (Department of Economics, The University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada)

  • A Haroon Akram-lodhi

    (Institute of Social Studies, The Hague, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This article assesses the significance of domestic and foreign savings for Vietnam's economic growth. Using annual data for the period between 1986 and 2000 a three-gap model is formulated and estimated. The model illustrates quite vividly the centrality of the foreign exchange constraint for Vietnam's economic growth. The domestic private savings constraint is also shown to be more binding than the public savings constraint. The estimates of the foreign exchange requirements under various growth path scenarios over the period 2001-05 suggest that the increase in investment required to boost the growth rate of output results in much higher levels of external debt than that estimated by the World Bank and other donors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Ardeshir Sepehri & A Haroon Akram-lodhi, 2005. "Transition, savings and growth in Vietnam: a three-gap analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 553-574.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:17:y:2005:i:4:p:553-574
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.1174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jid.1174
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jid.1174?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dwayne Benjamin & Loren Brandt, 2002. "Agriculture and Income Distribution in Rural Vietnam under Economic Reforms: A Tale of Two Regions," Working Papers benjamin-02-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Vietnam: Statistical Appendix and Background Notes," IMF Staff Country Reports 2000/116, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bacha, Edmar L., 1990. "A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 279-296, April.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Vietnam: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 1999/055, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Baer, Werner & Miles, William R. & Moran, Allen B., 1999. "The end of the Asian Myth: Why were the Experts Fooled?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1735-1747, October.
    7. Hill, Hal, 2000. "Export Success Against the Odds: A Vietnamese Case Study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 283-300, February.
    8. World Bank, 2000. "World Development Indicators 2000," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13828, December.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 1995. "Vietnam: Statistical Tables," IMF Staff Country Reports 1995/093, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vuong, Quan-Hoang, 2017. "The Vietnamese financial economy: reforms and development, 1986-2016," OSF Preprints g7e6t, Center for Open Science.
    2. Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber & Thi Anh-Dao Tran, 2015. "Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 588-615, November.
    3. Anwar, Sajid & Nguyen, Lan Phi, 2011. "Foreign direct investment and trade: The case of Vietnam," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-52, January.
    4. Newman, Carol & Tarp, Finn & Van den Broeck, Katleen & Quang, Chu Tien & Khai, Luu Duc, 2008. "Household Savings in Vietnam: Insights from a 2006 Rural Household Survey," MPRA Paper 62453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11406 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sepehri, A. & Akram-Lodhi, A.H., 2002. "A crouching tiger? A hidden dragon? Transition, savings and growth in Vietnam, 1975-2006," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19104, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Tyrväinen, Timo, 1991. "Unions, wages and employment: evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/1991, Bank of Finland.
    3. Claire G.Gilmore & Brian Lucey & Ginette M.McManus, 2005. "The Dynamics of Central European Equity Market Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp069, IIIS.
    4. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    5. Islam Hassouneh & Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2010. "Price transmission in the Spanish bovine sector: the BSE effect," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 33-42, January.
    6. Ashfaque H. Khan & Afia Malik & Lubna Hasan, 1995. "Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration and Error-correction Modelling," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1001-1012.
    7. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Nasr, G. E. & Badr, E. A. & Dibeh, G., 2000. "Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 627-640, December.
    9. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2008. "Real (effective) exchange rate in Uruguay: a periodic cointegration approach," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 265-289, julio-sep.
    10. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ahmed, Khalid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Trade openness–carbon emissions nexus: The importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 221-232.
    12. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Jesus Vazquez, 2002. "Does the Lucas critique apply during hyperinflation?: empirical evidence from four hyperinflationary episodes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1389-1397.
    14. Paroissien, Emmanuel, 2020. "Forecasting bulk prices of Bordeaux wines using leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 292-309.
    15. Asraul Hoque, 1995. "Co-integrating relationship between terms of trade and current account deficit: the Australian evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 130-133.
    16. Beenstock, Michael & Reingewertz, Yaniv & Paldor, Nathan, 2016. "Testing the historic tracking of climate models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1234-1246.
    17. Younes Ben Zaied & Marie Estelle Binet, 2015. "Modelling seasonality in residential water demand: the case of Tunisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(19), pages 1983-1996, April.
    18. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    19. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Mbazima, Daisy, 2008. "The Causal Relationship Between Government Revenue and Expenditure in Namibia," MPRA Paper 9154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Marie Daumal, 2013. "The Impact of Trade Openness on Regional Inequality: The Cases of India and Brazil," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 243-280, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:17:y:2005:i:4:p:553-574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/5102/home .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.