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How important is sound domestic macroeconomics in attracting capital inflows to developing countries?

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Author Info
Graham Bird (Surrey Centre for International Economic Studies, University of Surrey, UK)

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Abstract

Many developing countries face deficiencies of domestic saving and foreign exchange. With foreign aid declining in real terms it becomes increasingly important to ask what they can do to attract private capital. Without capital inflows, shortages of external financing are likely to constitute an effective constraint on economic development. Within this context a key question is 'how important is it to get the macroeconomics right?'. Can developing countries expect to be rewarded for improved macroeconomic performance by capital inflows? Clearly if they can, there is an additional incentive to seek such improvement.

The theoretical and empirical analysis in this paper suggests that there will be no short-run pay-off to improved macroeconomics, beyond a point at which severe macroeconomic disequilibria are eliminated. Whereas there are predictable penalties for getting the macroeconomics badly wrong, there are no equivalently predictable rewards getting it 'right'. In large measure this is the consequence of the ambiguities surrounding what is sound macroeconomics. Macroeconomics is simply too uncertain to encourage investors to attach deterministic weights to indicators of macroeconomic policy and performance. For as long as these uncertainties remain, it is difficult to see how domestic macroeconomics will become a dominant factor in explaining capital flows. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of International Development.

Volume (Year): 11 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-26
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Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:11:y:1999:i:1:p:1-26

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Classens, S. & Dooley, M.P. & Warner, A., 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold," Papers 501, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    Other versions:
  2. Nadeem Ul Haque & Manmohan S. Kumar & Donald J. Mathieson & Nelson C. Mark, 1996. "The Economic Content of Indicators of Developing Country Creditworthiness," IMF Working Papers 96/9, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Garber, Peter M, 1996. "Managing Risks to Financial Markets from Volatile Capital Flows: The Role of Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 183-95, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cardoso, Eliana A. & Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1989. "Foreign private capital flows," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery† & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 26, pages 1387-1439 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-23, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Magnus Blomstrom & Robert E. Lipsey & Mario Zejan, 1996. "Is Fixed Investment the Key to Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 4436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J, 1996. "The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 51-77, January.
  10. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Easterly, William & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1993. "Fiscal Deficits and Macroeconomic Performance in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 211-37, July.
  12. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 1997. "The Catalytic Effect of Lending by the International Financial Institutions," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(7), pages 967-991, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996. "Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Timothy D. Lane & José Saúl Lizondo & Donald J. Mathieson & Morris Goldstein & Liliana Rojas-Suárez & D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau, 1991. "Determinants and Systemic Consequences of International Capital Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 77, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Corden, W Max, 1993. "Exchange Rate Policies for Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 198-207, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Edward M. Graham, 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment in the World Economy," IMF Working Papers 95/59, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Daveri, Francesco, 1995. "Costs of entry and exit from financial markets and capital flows to developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1375-1385, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler & Robert Brandon Kahn, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  22. Rodrik, Dani, 1992. "The Limits of Trade Policy Reform in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 87-105, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Corbo, Vittorio & Hernandez, Leonardo, 1996. "Macroeconomic Adjustment to Capital Inflows: Lessons from Recent Latin American and East Asian Experience," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 61-85, February.
  24. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2000. "The catalyzing role of policy-based lending by the IMF and the World Bank: fact or fiction?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(7), pages 951-973.
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