IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jfutmk/v39y2019i9p1035-1055.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Derivatives pricing when supply and demand matter: Evidence from the term structure of VIX futures

Author

Listed:
  • Scott Mixon
  • Esen Onur

Abstract

We decompose the VIX futures term structure into systematic components driving the VIX and idiosyncratic components reflecting demand by various types of futures end‐users. We model two distinct channels by which trading activity manifests itself into futures prices: a contemporaneous “level effect” across the term structure due to the aggregate size of nondealer net demand and a mean‐reverting “roll effect” due to large trades in specific contracts. The observed futures term structure was, on average, higher and steeper than it would have been in the absence of the observed nondealer demand, but the impact varies in sign and magnitude over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott Mixon & Esen Onur, 2019. "Derivatives pricing when supply and demand matter: Evidence from the term structure of VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1035-1055, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:9:p:1035-1055
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.22035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22035
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/fut.22035?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iryna Kaminska & Dimitri Vayanos & Gabriele Zinna, 2011. "Preferred-Habitat Investors and the US Term Structure of Real Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp674, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    3. Erkko Etula, 2013. "Broker-Dealer Risk Appetite and Commodity Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 486-521, June.
    4. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    5. Scott Mixon, 2002. "Factors explaining movements in the implied volatility surface," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(10), pages 915-937, October.
    6. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Carrion, Allen & Tuttle, Laura & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2016. "Liquidity, resiliency and market quality around predictable trades: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 142-166.
    7. Ing-Haw Cheng, 2019. "The VIX Premium," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 180-227.
    8. Mixon, Scott, 2007. "The implied volatility term structure of stock index options," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 333-354, June.
    9. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, April.
    10. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
    11. Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani‐Rad & Robert I. Webb, 2016. "On the Intraday Relation Between the VIX and its Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(9), pages 870-886, September.
    12. Constantinides, George M. & Lian, Lei, 2021. "The Supply and Demand of S&P 500 Put Options," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, April.
    13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    14. Johnson, Travis L., 2017. "Risk Premia and the VIX Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2461-2490, December.
    15. Frans A. De Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, June.
    16. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2011. "The Price Pressure of Aggregate Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 585-603, April.
    17. Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
    18. Narayan Y. Naik & Pradeep K. Yadav, 2003. "Risk Management with Derivatives by Dealers and Market Quality in Government Bond Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1873-1904, October.
    19. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2004. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2623-2654, December.
    20. Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The Term Structure of Variance Swap Rates and Optimal Variance Swap Investments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1279-1310, October.
    21. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yu-Lun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trader positions in VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Peter Van Tassel, 2020. "The Law of One Price in Equity Volatility Markets," Staff Reports 953, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Park, Yang-Ho, 2020. "Variance disparity and market frictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 326-348.
    2. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    3. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2012. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale asset purchases: evidence on the importance of local supply," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D'Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Jacobs, Kris & Li, Bingxin, 2023. "Option Returns, Risk Premiums, and Demand Pressure in Energy Markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    7. Carter, Colin A. & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar, 2023. "Financialization and speculators risk premia in commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Variance Disparity and Market Frictions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
    10. Liu, Clark & Wang, Shujing & Wei, K.C. John & Zhong, Ninghua, 2019. "The demand effect of yield-chasing retail investors: Evidence from the Chinese enterprise bond market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 57-77.
    11. Todd M. Hazelkorn & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kaushik Vasudevan, 2023. "Beyond Basis Basics: Liquidity Demand and Deviations from the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 301-345, February.
    12. Ana‐Maria Fuertes & Zhenya Liu & Weiqing Tang, 2022. "Risk‐neutral skewness and commodity futures pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 751-785, April.
    13. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    14. Sumudu W. Watugala, 2019. "Economic uncertainty, trading activity, and commodity futures volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 921-945, August.
    15. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
    16. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    17. Mohammad Isleimeyyeh, 2020. "The role of financial investors in determining the commodity futures risk premium," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1375-1397, September.
    18. Scott Mixon & Tugkan Tuzun, 2018. "Price Pressure and Price Discovery in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-065, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Chen, Chin-Ho, 2019. "Downside jump risk and the levels of futures-cash basis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & Alberto G. Rossi, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Risk Underlying the Cross Section of Commodity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 619-641, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:9:p:1035-1055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-7314/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.