IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v61y2021icp1-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trader positions in VIX futures

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Yu-Lun
  • Yang, J. Jimmy

Abstract

We investigate the dynamic changes in trader positions of market participants in the VIX futures markets. We find that in a low-VIX period, below the 23.81 threshold determined by our model, changes in VIX futures affect the trading decisions of dealers and leveraged fund managers, but in an opposite direction. During a high-VIX period, dealers and leveraged fund managers would then alter their trading strategies. We highlight the important role of exchange-traded products trading in hedging demand of dealers and show the impact on VIX futures. Trader positions are determinants of VIX futures prices, basis, and VIX premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Yu-Lun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trader positions in VIX futures," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:61:y:2021:i:c:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2020.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539820300943
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2020.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian A. Gehricke & Jin E. Zhang, 2020. "Modeling VXX under jump diffusion with stochastic long‐term mean," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(10), pages 1508-1534, October.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Richard K. Crump & Erik Vogt, 2019. "Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1931-1973, August.
    4. Changyun Wang, 2003. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, January.
    5. Krista Schwarz, 2012. "Are speculators informed?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani‐Rad & Robert I. Webb, 2019. "Does increased hedging lead to decreased price efficiency? The case of VIX ETPs and VIX futures," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 477-500, August.
    7. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    8. Christensen, Kim & Christiansen, Charlotte & Posselt, Anders M., 2020. "The economic value of VIX ETPs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 121-138.
    9. Grunbichler, Andreas & Longstaff, Francis A., 1996. "Valuing futures and options on volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 985-1001, July.
    10. Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2007. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 719-737, August.
    11. Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2013. "Valuation of VIX derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 367-391.
    12. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    13. Jinghong Shu & Jin E. Zhang, 2012. "Causality in the VIX futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 24-46, January.
    14. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Michael J. O'Neill & Robert E. Whaley, 2017. "Tail Wags Dog: Intraday Price Discovery in VIX Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 431-451, May.
    15. Eraker, Bjørn & Wu, Yue, 2017. "Explaining the negative returns to volatility claims: An equilibrium approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 72-98.
    16. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    17. Alexander Kurov, 2008. "Investor Sentiment, Trading Behavior and Informational Efficiency in Index Futures Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 107-127, February.
    18. Johnson, Travis L., 2017. "Risk Premia and the VIX Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(6), pages 2461-2490, December.
    19. Frans A. De Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, June.
    20. Scott Mixon & Esen Onur, 2019. "Derivatives pricing when supply and demand matter: Evidence from the term structure of VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1035-1055, September.
    21. Arjun Chatrath & Youguo Liang & Frank Song, 1997. "Commitment of traders, basis behavior, and the issue of risk premia in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 707-731, September.
    22. Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Determining the Number of Regimes in a Threshold Autoregressive Model Using Smooth Transition Autoregressions," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 578, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Feb 2005.
    23. Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko & Maria T. Gonzalez-Perez, 2015. "Exploring Return Dynamics via Corridor Implied Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(10), pages 2902-2945.
    24. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    25. Underwood, Shane, 2009. "The cross-market information content of stock and bond order flow," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 268-289, May.
    26. Chang, Ya-Kai & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chou, Robin K. & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2013. "The effectiveness of position limits: Evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4501-4509.
    27. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-667.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fotini Economou & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Bartosz Gebka & Vasileios Kallinterakis, 2022. "Feedback trading: a review of theory and empirical evidence," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(4), pages 429-476, February.
    2. Chen, Yu-Lun & Mo, Wan-Shin, 2023. "Determinants and dynamic interactions of trader positions in the gold futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    3. Michael J. O'Neill & Robert E. Whaley, 2023. "Effects of nondiscretionary trading on futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 33-68, January.
    4. Nekhili, Ramzi & Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Multiscale spillovers and connectedness between gold, copper, oil, wheat and currency markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Yu‐Lun Chen & J. Jimmy Yang, 2024. "Time‐varying price discovery in regular and microbitcoin futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 103-121, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George O. Aragon & Rajnish Mehra & Sunil Wahal, 2018. "Do Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly? Evidence from VIX Futures Markets," NBER Working Papers 24575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
    3. Chen, Yu-Lun & Chang, Ya-Kai, 2015. "Investor structure and the informational efficiency of commodity futures prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 358-367.
    4. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali, 2013. "Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Georg Lehecka, 2015. "Do hedging and speculative pressures drive commodity prices, or the other way round?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 575-603, September.
    6. Shimeng Shi, 2022. "Bitcoin futures risk premia," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2190-2217, December.
    7. Gehricke, Sebastian A. & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "Tracking performance of VIX futures ETPs," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-117.
    8. Park, Yang-Ho, 2020. "Variance disparity and market frictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 326-348.
    9. Scott Mixon & Esen Onur, 2019. "Derivatives pricing when supply and demand matter: Evidence from the term structure of VIX futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1035-1055, September.
    10. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty, positions of traders and changes in commodity futures prices," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 239-260, March.
    11. Sigl-Grüb, C. & Schiereck, D., 2010. "Speculation and Nonlinear Price Dynamics in Commodity Futures Markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 56603, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    12. Xinglin Yang & Ji Chen, 2021. "VIX term structure: The role of jump propagation risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 785-810, June.
    13. Yan-Hong Yang & Ying-Hui Shao, 2019. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," Papers 1910.13729, arXiv.org.
    14. Lai, Ya-Wen & Lin, Chiou-Fa & Tang, Mei-Ling, 2017. "Mispricing and trader positions in the S&P 500 index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 250-265.
    15. Yiuman Tse & Michael Williams, 2011. "Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Futures Analysis Using intraday data, we find that unidirectional causality runs from commodity index linked commodity futures to non-index ," Working Papers 0007, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    16. Yiuman Tse & Michael R. Williams, 2013. "Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 365-383, August.
    17. Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Ying-Hui, 2020. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationships between the VIX and VIX futures markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    18. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 254-270.
    19. Chang, Ya-Kai & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chou, Robin K. & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2013. "The effectiveness of position limits: Evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4501-4509.
    20. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Variance Disparity and Market Frictions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VIX futures; Leveraged fund; Dealers; Exchange-traded products;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:61:y:2021:i:c:p:1-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.