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When Kahneman meets Manski: Using dual systems of reasoning to interpret subjective expectations of equity returns

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  • Fabian Gouret
  • Guillaume Hollard

Abstract

To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations relative to expected risk-return trade-off. One of the few surveys which have included such questions is the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999-2001. Using this survey, Dominitz and Manski find an important heterogeneity across respondents that can hardly be accounted for by simple models of expectations formation. This paper claims that much of the heterogeneity derives from pathologies affecting respondents. Adapting a principle of dual-reasoning borrowed from Kahneman, we classify respondents according to their sensitivity to these pathologies, and find a strong homogeneity across the less sensitive respondents. We then sketch a model of expectation formation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 26 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (04)
Pages: 371-392

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Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:26:y:2011:i:3:p:371-392

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References

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  1. Dimitrios Christelis & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula, 2006. "Cognitive Abilities and Portfolio Choice," CSEF Working Papers 157, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  2. Péter Hudomiet & Gábor Kézdi & Robert J. Willis, 2011. "Stock market crash and expectations of American households," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 393-415, 04.
  3. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
  4. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00176025 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
  6. Flachaire, Emmanuel & Hollard, Guillaume, 2008. "Individual sensitivity to framing effects," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 296-307, July.
  7. Hurd, Michael D, 1999. "Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Household Surveys," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 111-36, December.
  8. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2007. "Expected Equity Returns and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 369-379, 04-05.
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Cited by:
  1. Maurizio Bovi, 2014. "Shocks and the Expectations Formation Process. A Tale of Two Expectations," Natural Field Experiments 00390, The Field Experiments Website.
  2. van Santen, Peter & Alessie, Rob & Kalwij, Adriaan, 2012. "Probabilistic survey questions and incorrect answers: Retirement income replacement rates," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 267-280.
  3. Binswanger, Johannes & Salm, Martin, 2013. "Does Everyone Use Probabilities? Intuitive and Rational Decisions about Stockholding," IZA Discussion Papers 7265, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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