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The impact of technological change on new trade: Evidence from the container revolution

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  • Daniel M. Bernhofen
  • Zouheir El‐Sahli
  • Richard Kneller

Abstract

We estimate the impact of the container revolution on new trade in temperature‐sensitive products. Our identification strategy is justified by a historical narrative suggesting that the containerization of bilateral trading routes was exogenous to the occurrence of new trade in temperature‐sensitive products because their small trade volumes made them inconsequential for the adoption of the container technology. Employing product‐level data on containerizability, our benchmark estimates imply that containerization caused an increase in the likelihood of new trade in temperature‐sensitive products in the orders of 2.4% between 1964 and 1973 and 7.5% between 1964 and 1983. Conséquences des mutations technologiques sur les nouveaux échanges commerciaux : l'exemple de la « révolution des conteneurs ». Cet article évalue les conséquences de la « révolution des conteneurs » sur les nouveaux échanges commerciaux de produits thermosensibles. Notre stratégie d'identification s'appuie sur un récit historique qui laisse à penser que la conteneurisation des routes commerciales bilatérales est extérieure à l'essor du commerce de produits réfrigérés, leur faible volume d'échange n'ayant eu qu'un impact négligeable sur l'adoption de la technologie des conteneurs. En nous appuyant sur des données produits relatives à la « conteneurisabilité », nos estimations de référence indiquent que la conteneurisation a entraîné une augmentation des nouveaux échanges de produits thermosensibles de 2,4 % entre 1964 et 1973, et de 7,5 % entre 1964 et 1983

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  • Daniel M. Bernhofen & Zouheir El‐Sahli & Richard Kneller, 2021. "The impact of technological change on new trade: Evidence from the container revolution," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(2), pages 923-943, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:54:y:2021:i:2:p:923-943
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12517
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    1. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    2. Dany Bahar & Rodrigo Wagner & Ernesto Stein & Samuel Rosenow, 2017. "The Birth and Growth of New Export Clusters: Which Mechanisms Drive Diversification?," CID Working Papers 86a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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