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Impact of economic conditions on (restricted) immigration to the United States: The Polish case

Author

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  • Schwabe Michał

    (Collegium of World Economy, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Warsaw, Poland.)

Abstract

Throughout the twentieth century, United States has been the most desirable destination for international migrants, primarily due to its economic performance and also to American values – work ethics and tolerance of ethnic diversity. This paper aims to test if selected economic indicators might influence international migration. To this end a time series analysis was performed with time series regression model, where lagged values of various macroeconomic indicators were tested for a significant impact on migration flows. This paper also cast a light on U.S. labour migration's legislation and history, as well as current migrant stock characteristics. It gives specific attention to Polish migrant population, as Polish Americans constitute the largest Polish diaspora worldwide. The results of the analysis show that U.S. immigration volumes are sensitive to American unemployment rate and American GDP growth (pull factors). However, analysing Polish migration volumes to the U.S. a significant correlation with selected American indicators was not revealed. On the contrary, Polish migration flows to the U.S. were correlated with Polish economic growth and the Polish unemployment rate fluctuations (push factors).

Suggested Citation

  • Schwabe Michał, 2021. "Impact of economic conditions on (restricted) immigration to the United States: The Polish case," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 57(3), pages 197-208, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ijomae:v:57:y:2021:i:3:p:197-208:n:7
    DOI: 10.2478/ijme-2021-0014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    2. Harry Jerome, 1926. "Migration and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number jero26-1, March.
    3. Harry Jerome, 1926. "Appendix to "Migration and Business Cycles"," NBER Chapters, in: Migration and Business Cycles, pages 245-250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Polish migration to the United States; immigration to the United States; impact of business cycle on labour migration; international labour migration; United States immigration law;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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