Poland’s Trade with East Asia: An Outlier Approach

Poland achieved an excellent reputation for economic transformation during the recent global recession. The European debt crisis, however, quickly forced the reorientation of Poland’s trade outside of the European Union (EU), especially toward the dynamic region of East Asia. This study analyzes time series data from 1999 to 2013 to detect outliers in order to determine the bilateral trade paths between Poland and each East Asian country during the events of Poland’s accession to the EU in 2004, the global financial crisis from 2008 to 2009, and the European debt crisis from 2010 to 2013. From the Polish standpoint, the results showed significantly clustering outliers in the above periods and in the general trade paths from dependence through distancing and improvement to the chance of approaching East Asian partners. This study also shows that not only China but also several other countries present an excellent opportunity for boosting bilateral trade, especially with regard to Poland’s exports.