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A Stock-Flow Analysis of the Welfare Caseload

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  • Jacob Alex Klerman
  • Steven J. Haider

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the methods used in previous studies to assess the welfare caseload movements during the 1990s. We develop a model in which the welfare caseload is the net outcome of past flows onto and off of the caseload and show that such a stock-flow model can explain some of the anomalous findings in previous studies. We then estimate the stock-flow model using California administrative data. We find that approximately 50 percent of the caseload decline in California can be attributed to the declining unemployment rate. These estimates are more robust and larger than those obtained when applying more typical methods to the same California data.

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File URL: http://jhr.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/XXXIX/4/865
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Wisconsin Press in its journal Journal of Human Resources.

Volume (Year): 39 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:39:y:2004:i:4:p865-886

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Web page: http://jhr.uwpress.org/

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Cited by:
  1. Todd Elder & Elizabeth Powers, 2007. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Entries and Exits of the Low-Income Elderly to and from the Supplemental Security Income Program," Working Papers wp156, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  2. Giles, John & Park, Albert & Cai, Fang, 2006. "Reemployment of dislocated workers in urban China: The roles of information and incentives," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 582-607, September.
  3. Jeffrey Grogger, 2005. "Markov Forecasting Methods for Welfare Caseloads," NBER Working Papers 11682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Oscar A. Mitnik, 2007. "Intergenerational transmission of welfare dependency: The effects of length of exposure," Working Papers 0715, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
  5. Robert Moffitt, 2001. "The Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program," Economics Working Paper Archive 463, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  6. Marianne E. Page & Joanne Spetz & Jane Millar, 2000. "Does the Minimum Wage Affect Welfare Caseloads?," JCPR Working Papers 135, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
  7. Timothy J. Bartik, 2002. "Instrumental Variable Estimates of the Labor Market Spillover Effects of Welfare Reform," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 02-78, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  8. Ellen Meara & Richard Frank, 2006. "Welfare Reform, Work Requirements, and Employment Barriers," NBER Working Papers 12480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Masayoshi Hayashi, 2012. "Forecasting Welfare Caseloads: The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-846, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  10. Jessamyn Schaller, 2013. "For richer, if not for poorer? Marriage and divorce over the business cycle," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 1007-1033, July.
  11. Steven J. Haider & Kathleen McGarry, 2005. "Recent Trends in Resource Sharing Among the Poor," NBER Working Papers 11612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Chris Herbst & David Stevens, 2010. "The Impact of Local Labor Market Conditions on Work and Welfare Decisions: Revisiting an Old Question Using New Data," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 453-479, August.
  13. Marianne Bitler & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2006. "Welfare Reform and Indirect Impacts on Health," NBER Working Papers 12642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Marianne P. Bitler & Jonah B. Gelbach & Hilary W. Hoynes, 2003. "Welfare Reform and Children's Living Arrangements," Working Papers 111, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
  15. Lucie Schmidt, 2013. "The New Safety Net? Supplemental Security Income after Welfare Reform," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-07, Department of Economics, Williams College.

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