IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rseexx/v38y2014i3p55-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Sustainability in South Africa: Will History Repeat Itself?

Author

Listed:
  • E. Calitz
  • S.A. du Plessis
  • F.K. Siebrits

Abstract

Several empirical studies have found that fiscal policy has been sustainable in South Africa since 1960. This paper complements these studies by providing perspective on the manner in which fiscal sustainability was maintained. It discusses two episodes of significant increases and one period of substantial reduction in the public debt burden to show that periods of rising deficits and government debt in South Africa were followed by returns to sustainable levels, thereby preventing major domestic economic crises and external interventions. The paper also provides a projection of the fiscal outlook for South Africa based on a structural VAR model. The results suggest that the discretionary fiscal decisions of 2007 to 2010 might pose a serious threat to the sustainability of fiscal policy unless the authorities respond as they did in the past by checking large budget deficits and concomitant rapid increases in the public debt burden promptly.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Calitz & S.A. du Plessis & F.K. Siebrits, 2014. "Fiscal Sustainability in South Africa: Will History Repeat Itself?," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 55-78, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rseexx:v:38:y:2014:i:3:p:55-78
    DOI: 10.1080/10800379.2014.12097272
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/10800379.2014.12097272
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10800379.2014.12097272?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Black, Philip & Calitz, Estian & Steenkamp, Tjaart, 2015. "Public Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 6, number 9780199059089, Decembrie.
    2. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustment and Growth: In and Out of Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 7-59, October.
    3. von Hagen, Jurgen & Strauch, Rolf R, 2001. "Fiscal Consolidations: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Success," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 327-346, December.
    4. Stan du Plessis & Willem Boshoff, 2007. "A fiscal rule to produce counter-cyclical fiscal policy in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "A Historical Public Debt Database," IMF Working Papers 2010/245, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Gauthier Tshiswaka-Kashalala, 2006. "Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in South Africa? An Application of the Econometric Approach," Working Papers 200614, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fofana, Ismael & Goundan, Anatole & Magne, Léa, 2014. "Simulation des impacts de la politique d’autosuffisance en riz de l’Afrique de l’ouest," Conference papers 332560, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Roy Havemann & Hylton Hollander, 2022. "Fiscal policy in times of fiscal stress: Or what to do when r > g," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-52, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Hylton Hollander, 2021. "Debt-financed fiscal stimulus in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-152, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Xolisa Vayi & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "A sequential panel selection approach to cointegration analysis: An application to Wagner’s law for South Africa," Working Papers 1831, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University.
    5. Xolisa Vayi & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "A Sequential Panel Selection Approach to Cointegration Analysis: An Application to Wagner’s Law for South African Provincial Data," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 25-39, June.
    6. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu, 2020. "Do fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability in South Africa?: A Markov-switching approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-163, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
    2. Jean-Louis COMBES & Rasmané OUEDRAOGO, 2014. "Does Pro-cyclical Aid Lead to Pro-cyclical Fiscal Policy? An Empirical Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 201424, CERDI.
    3. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2011. "The Keynesian Multiplier Effect Reconsidered," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 787-794, June.
    4. Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
    5. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Srinivasan, T.G. & Murrell, Kim, 1996. "India in the global economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1681, The World Bank.
    6. Schumacher, Julian & Trebesch, Christoph & Enderlein, Henrik, 2021. "Sovereign defaults in court," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595, February.
    8. Tapsoba, René, 2012. "Do National Numerical Fiscal Rules really shape fiscal behaviours in developing countries? A treatment effect evaluation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1356-1369.
    9. Giesenow, Federico M. & de Wit, Juliette & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "The political and institutional determinants of fiscal adjustments and expansions: Evidence for a large set of countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2023. "Post COVID‐19 exit strategies and emerging markets economic challenges," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 1-34, February.
    11. Ismihan, Mustafa & Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2012. "Public debt and financial development: A theoretical exploration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 348-351.
    12. Asatryan, Zareh & Castellón, César & Stratmann, Thomas, 2018. "Balanced budget rules and fiscal outcomes: Evidence from historical constitutions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 105-119.
    13. Alessandro Piergallini & Michele Postigliola, 2012. "Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy, 1861-2009," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 417-440.
    14. Sinha, Pankaj & Srinivas, Sandeep & Paul, Anik & Chaudhari, Gunjan, 2016. "Forecasting 2016 US Presidential Elections Using Factor Analysis and Regression Model," MPRA Paper 74618, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Oct 2016.
    15. Iulia Siedschlag, 2008. "Macroeconomic Differentials and Adjustment in the Euro Area," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/3 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    16. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," NIPE Working Papers 31/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    17. Imran Hanif & Pilar Gago-de Santos, 2017. "Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on Private Savings in a Developing Country," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 12(3), pages 259-285, December.
    18. Hylton Hollander, 2021. "Debt-financed fiscal stimulus in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-152, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Sun, Xiaoqi & Liu, Xiaojia, 2020. "Decomposition analysis of debt’s impact on China’s energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    20. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rseexx:v:38:y:2014:i:3:p:55-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rsee .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.