IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjapxx/v15y2010i4p490-508.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gary Tian
  • Shiguang Ma

Abstract

This study employs the ARDL cointegration approach in order to examine the impact of financial liberalization on the relationships between the exchange rate and share market performance in China. We discovered that cointegration has existed between the Shanghai A Share Index and the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar and Hong Kong dollar since 2005, when the Chinese exchange rate regime became a flexible, managed, floating system. We found that both the exchange rate and the money supply influenced stock price, with a positive correlation. We further show that the money supply increase was largely caused by a huge ‘hot money’ inflow from other countries in recent years. After local currency appreciation, hot money, followed by the money supply increase, pushed the market into a high level, based on expectations regarding the local currency's further appreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Tian & Shiguang Ma, 2010. "The relationship between stock returns and the foreign exchange rate: the ARDL approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 490-508.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:15:y:2010:i:4:p:490-508
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2010.516171
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13547860.2010.516171
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13547860.2010.516171?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Horobet, Alexandra & Ilie, Livia, 2007. "On the dynamic link between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from Romania," MPRA Paper 6429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. James Obben & Andrew Pech & Shamim Shakur, 2006. "Analysis of the relationship between the share market performance and exchange rates in New Zealand: A cointegrating VAR approach," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 147-180.
    4. Benjamin M. Tabak, 2006. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence For Brazil," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(08), pages 1377-1396.
    5. Eiji Ogawa & Michiru Sakane, 2006. "The Chinese Yuan after the Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform," Discussion papers 06019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Eiji Ogawa & Michiru Sakane, 2006. "Chinese Yuan after Chinese Exchange Rate System Reform," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(6), pages 39-57, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Samih Antoine Azar, 2013. "US Stocks and the US Dollar," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 91-106, October.
    3. Sujata Saha, 2022. "Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price Changes on Stock Prices: Evidence from Country and Sectoral Level Data," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(2), pages 237-282, April.
    4. Zuzana Rowland & George Lazaroiu & Ivana Podhorská, 2020. "Use of Neural Networks to Accommodate Seasonal Fluctuations When Equalizing Time Series for the CZK/RMB Exchange Rate," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Sushil Kumar Rai & Akhilesh Kumar Sharma, 2023. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility In India Under Univariate And Multivariate Analysis," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(1), pages 175-190, March.
    6. Siew-Pong Cheah & Thian-Hee Yiew & Cheong-Fatt Ng, 2017. "A nonlinear ARDL analysis on the relation between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 336-346.
    7. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
    8. Richard Kofi Asravor & Prince Dieu‐Donne Fonu, 2021. "Dynamic relation between macroeconomic variable, stock market returns and stock market development in Ghana," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2637-2646, April.
    9. Rabia Luqman & Rehana Kouser, 2018. "Asymmetrical Linkages between Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets: Empirical Evidence through Linear and Non-Linear ARDL," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-13, August.
    10. Muhammed Benli & Sedat Durmuskaya & Gokberk Bayramoglu, 2019. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through and sectoral stock price indices: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Business and Management, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 25-47, May.
    11. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Stock market reactions to domestic sentiment: Panel CS-ARDL evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Li, Wei & Lu, Xinsheng & Ren, Yongping & Zhou, Ying, 2018. "Dynamic relationship between RMB exchange rate index and stock market liquidity: A new perspective based on MF-DCCA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 726-739.
    13. Charles Kwofie & Richard Kwame Ansah, 2018. "A Study of the Effect of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Stock Market Returns in Ghana," International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-8, March.
    14. Nikolaos Stoupos & Apostolos Kiohos, 2021. "BREXIT referendum’s impact on the financial markets in the UK," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 1-19, February.
    15. Hom Nath Gaire, 2017. "Stock Index, Interest Rate and Gold Price of Nepal: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 29(2), pages 15-30, October.
    16. Karunanayake, Indika, 2014. "Exchange Rate Influences On Stock Market Returns And Volatility Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From The Australian Stock Market," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.
    17. Shaobo Long & Mengxue Zhang & Keaobo Li & Shuyu Wu, 2021. "Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    18. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    19. Hande Aksoz Yilmaz & Fatih Guzel, 2021. "How Do the Exchange Rates Affect the Sector Indices? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Borsa Istanbul," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(71-2), pages 411-434, December.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2018. "On the relation between exchange rates and stock prices: a non-linear ARDL approach and asymmetry analysis," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 112-137, January.
    21. Omer Ahmed Sayed Mohamed & Faiza Omer Mohammed Elmahgop, 2020. "Is the Effect of the Exchange Rate on Stock Prices Symmetric or Asymmetric? Evidence from Sudan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 209-215.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dilip Kumar & S. Maheswaran, 2013. "Return, Volatility and Risk Spillover from Oil Prices and the US Dollar Exchange Rate to the Indian Industrial Sectors," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(1), pages 61-91, February.
    2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Eiji Ogawa & Takeshi Kudo, 2007. "Possible depreciation of the US dollar for unsustainable current account deficit in the United States," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(04), pages 24-30, January.
    4. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Willett, Thomas D., 2010. "China as a reserve sink: The evidence from offset and sterilization coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 951-972, September.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel & Daniel Xie, 2010. "Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 568-572, May.
    6. Eiji Ogawa, 2011. "Currency Baskets for East Asia," Chapters, in: Ulrich Volz (ed.), Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Ogawa, Eiji & Shimizu, Junko, 2006. "Stabilization of effective exchange rates under common currency basket systems," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 590-611, December.
    8. Ogawa, Eiji & Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2009. "External adjustments and coordinated exchange rate policy in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 225-239, May.
    9. Masahiro Kawai & Victor Pontines, 2014. "The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," Finance Working Papers 24218, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2009. "New Estimation Of China'S Exchange Rate Regime," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 346-360, August.
    11. Tian, Lei & Chen, Langnan, 2013. "A reinvestigation of the new RMB exchange rate regime," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 16-25.
    12. OGAWA Eiji & Zhiqian WANG, 2012. "The AMU Deviation Indicators Based on the Purchasing Power Parity and Adjusted by the Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Discussion papers 12078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Ahmed M Khalid & Francesco Barbera, 2014. "It’s not yen, euro or koala bloc: Greenback is still dominant in East Asia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(4), pages 549-571, November.
    14. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Kawasaki, 2008. "Adopting a Common Currency Basket Arrangement into the ASEAN Plus Three," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 219-237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Marco Mele, 2019. "On the Chinese's Exchange Rate Regime: A Different Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7.
    16. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2010. "Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket in China from 2005 to 2009," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 515-529, December.
    17. Jie Sun, 2010. "Retrospect of the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime after Reform: Stylized Facts during the Period from 2005 to 2010," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(6), pages 19-35, November.
    18. Jarko Fidrmuc & Martin Siddiqui, 2015. "Exchange Rate Policy in China after the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Time-varying Exchange Rate Basket," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 608-623, August.
    19. Fang, Ying & Huang, Shicheng & Niu, Linlin, 2012. "De facto currency baskets of China and East Asian economies: The rising weights," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. OGAWA Eiji & YOSHIMI Taiyo, 2009. "Analysis on β and σ Convergences of East Asian Currencies," Discussion papers 09018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:15:y:2010:i:4:p:490-508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjap .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.