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Purchasing Power Parity in the Transition: the Case of the Romanian Leu Against the Dollar

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Author Info
David Barlow
Roxana Radulescu
Abstract

This article uses co-integration analysis to test purchasing power parity for the Romanian leu against the US dollar. The fact that the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is not rejected leads to the conclusion that the real appreciation of the leu against the dollar over the transition has not been due to an appreciation of the equilibrium real exchange rate. Rather it is simply the consequence of the leu being devalued beyond the equilibrium level at the start of reform and slowly returning to its constant equilibrium real rate. There is evidence that the adjustment to equilibrium has fallen almost entirely on the price level, so that a major consequence of the excessive undervaluation has been higher inflation.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Post-Communist Economies.

Volume (Year): 14 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 123-135
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Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:14:y:2002:i:1:p:123-135

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  2. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Begg, David, 1998. "Pegging Out: Lessons from the Czech Exchange Rate Crisis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 669-690, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1987. "Exchange Rate Economics: 1986," NBER Working Papers 2071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1993. "Purchasing power parity based on effective exchange rate and cointegration: 25 LDCs' experience with its absolute formulation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1023-1031, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Panagiotis Liargovas, 1999. "An Assessment of Real Exchange Rate Movements in the Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 299-318, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989. [Downloadable!]
  12. Lionel Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 96/125, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David Barlow, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 201-221, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David M. Kemme & Saktinil Roy, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp797, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David Barlow, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 201-221, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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