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The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: evidence from China's stock market

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  • Qiwei Chen
  • Ying Jiang
  • Yuan Li

Abstract

Using the most comprehensive weekly dataset of ‘A’ shares listed on the Chinese stock market, this paper examines short-term contrarian strategies under different market states from 1995--2010. We find statistically significant profits from contrarian strategies, especially during the period after 2007, when China (along with other countries) experienced an economic downturn following the worldwide financial crisis. Our empirical evidence suggests that: (1) no significant profit is generated from either momentum or contrarian strategies in the intermediate horizon; (2) after microstructure effects are adjusted for, contrarian strategies with only four to eight weeks holding periods based on the stocks’ previous four to eight week's performance generate statistically significant profits of around 0.2% per week; (3) the contrarian strategy following a ‘down’ market generates higher profit than those following an ‘up’ market, suggesting that a contrarian strategy could be used as a shelter when the market is in decline. The profits following a ‘down’ market are robust after risk adjustment.

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  • Qiwei Chen & Ying Jiang & Yuan Li, 2012. "The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: evidence from China's stock market," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 89-108, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jocebs:v:10:y:2012:i:1:p:89-108
    DOI: 10.1080/14765284.2012.638473
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Hasan, Mohammad Nurul & Östermark, Ralf, 2020. "Are idiosyncratic risk and extreme positive return priced in the Indian equity market?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 530-545.
    3. Cheema, Muhammad A. & Chiah, Mardy & Man, Yimei, 2020. "Cross-sectional and time-series momentum returns: Is China different?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Shangkari V Anusakumar & Ruhani Ali & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2014. "Are momentum and contrarian effects related? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2361-2367.
    5. Hung-Wen Lin & Kun-Ben Lin & Jing-Bo Huang & Shu-Heng Chen, 2021. "Timely Loss Recognition Helps Nothing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Liu, Chenye & Wu, Ying & Zhu, Dongming, 2022. "Price overreaction to up-limit events and revised momentum strategies in the Chinese stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    7. Ahmed Imran Hunjra & Tahar Tayachi & Rashid Mehmood & Sidra Malik & Zoya Malik, 2020. "Impact of Credit Risk on Momentum and Contrarian Strategies: Evidence from South Asian Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-14, April.
    8. Cormac O’ Keeffe & Liam A. Gallagher, 2017. "The winner-loser anomaly: recent evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(47), pages 4718-4728, October.

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