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The Velocity of Circulation: Some new evidence on international integration

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  • Mark Holmes

Abstract

This study tests for the integration of money velocity movements among the major European Union countries. For this purpose, a new test is employed that allows one to confirm or reject integration on the basis of whether or not the first largest principal component, based on deviations of velocity growth rates from a base country, is stationary. Using monthly data covering the last 25 years, this study finds that integration was strongest during the 1970s and during 1983-92. These findings modify the institutionalist view that common financial developments have meant that velocities have moved together on an upward secular trend over the last 40 years. Developments with regard to currency substitution along with exchange rate policy and capital controls can affect relative interest rates and income movements and therefore the co-movements in money velocities.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal International Review of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2000)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 449-459

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Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:14:y:2000:i:4:p:449-459

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  1. Van Poeck, Andre & Van Gompel, Johan, 1994. "Dominant interest and inflation differentials within the EMS: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1661-1663, October.
  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  3. Hafer, R W & Kutan, A M, 1994. "A Long-Run View of German Dominance and the Degree of Policy Convergence in the EMS," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 684-95, October.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Raj, Baldev, 1995. "Institutional Hypothesis of the Long-Run Income Velocity of Money and Parameter Stability of the Equilibrium Relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 233-53, July-Sept.
  6. Raj, B., 1995. "The Institutional Hypothesis of the Long-Run Income Velocity of Money and Parameter Stability of the Equilibrium Relationship," Working Papers 95001, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  7. Bordo, Michael D & Jonung, Lars & Siklos, Pierre L, 1997. "Institutional Change and the Velocity of Money: A Century of Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 710-24, October.
  8. Mizen, Paul & Pentecost, Eric J, 1994. "Evaluating the Empirical Evidence for Currency Substitution: A Case Study of the Demand for Sterling in Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1057-69, September.
  9. White, Betsy Buttrill & Woodbury, John R, III, 1980. "Exchange Rate Systems and International Capital Market Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(2), pages 175-83, May.
  10. Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  11. Arnold, Ivo J. M., 1996. "Stochastic trends in the long-run behavior of velocity: A new test of the institutional hypothesis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 623-641, December.
  12. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1993. "Common stochastic trends and inflation convergence in the EMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 129(2), pages 207-215, June.
  13. Raj, B., 1995. "The Institutional Hypothesis of the Long-Run Income Velocity of Money and Parameter Stability of the Equilibrium Relationship," Working Papers 95001, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  14. Seitz, Franz & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1999. "Currency Substitution: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis for Germany and Europe," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(2), pages 137-53, March.
  15. Katsimbris, George M & Miller, Stephen M, 1993. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 771-79, November.
  16. Joines, Douglas H., 1985. "International currency substitution and the income velocity of money," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 303-316, September.
  17. Katsimbris, George M. & Miller, Stephen M., 1993. "Velocity variability: Directly an interest-rate driven phenomenon," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 423-437.
  18. Snell, Andy, 1996. "A test of purchasing power parity based on the largest principal component of real exchange rates of the main OECD economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 225-231, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2001. "Will The Euro Bring Economic Crisis to Europe?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_322, Levy Economics Institute.
  2. Tulay Yucel & Gulizar Kurt, 2002. "Cash Conversion Cycle, Cash Management and Profitability: An Empirical Study on the ISE Traded Companies," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 6(22), pages 1-16.
  3. Serpil Canbas & Murat Doganlar & Yildirim B.Onal, 2002. "Measurement of Foreign Exchange Exposure on the Turkish Private Banks’ Stock Prices," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 6(22), pages 17-32.
  4. Fatih Cin & Fikret Dulger, 2002. "Income Velocity of Money (M2): The Case of Turkey, 1986-2000," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 6(22), pages 33-48.

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