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Time-varying betas and the cross-sectional return-risk relation: evidence from the UK

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Author Info

  • Patricia Fraser
  • Foort Hamelink
  • Martin Hoesli
  • Bryan Macgregor

Abstract

The seminal study by Fama and MacBeth in 1973 initiated a stream of papers testing for the cross-sectional relation between return and risk. The debate as to whether beta is a valid measure of risk was reanimated by Fama and French and subsequent studies. Rather than focusing on exogenous variables that have a larger explanatory power than an asset's beta in cross-sectional tests, the matrix of variances-covariances is assumed to follow a time varying ARCH process. Using monthly data from the UK market from February 1975 to December 1996, the cross-sectional return-risk relations obtained with an unconditional specification for assets' betas are compared to those obtained when the estimated betas are based on an ARCH model. The approach taken by Pettengill, Sundaram and Mathur, which allows a negative cross sectional return-risk relation in periods in which the market portfolio yields a negative return relative to the risk free rate, was also investigated. These tests are also carried out on samples pertaining to a specific month and on samples from which a particular month is removed. Results suggest that the CAPM holds better in downward moving markets than in upward moving markets hence beta is a more appropriate measure of risk in bear markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 10 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 255-276

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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:10:y:2004:i:4:p:255-276

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Related research

Keywords: CAPM; QTARCH; return-risk relation; UK market;

References

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  1. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain, 1991. "Qualitative threshold arch models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9109, CEPREMAP.
  2. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  3. Clare, A. D. & Priestley, R. & Thomas, S. H., 1998. "Reports of beta's death are premature: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1207-1229, September.
  4. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  5. Engel, Charles & Rodrigues, Anthony P, 1989. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 119-38, April-Jun.
  6. Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 101-116, March.
  7. Nicolaas Groenewold, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9&10), pages 1367-1383.
  8. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
  9. Andrew Clare & Raymond O'Brien & Stephen Thomas & Michael Wickens, . "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Domestic CAPM: Evidence from the UK Stock Market," Discussion Papers 94/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Onour, Ibrahim, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis and Equity Markets in Middle East Oil Exporting Countries," MPRA Paper 23332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Syed ali, Raza & Syed tehseen, jawaid & Imtiaz, arif & Fahim, qazi, 2011. "Validity of capital asset pricing model: evidence from Karachi stock exchange," MPRA Paper 32737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Joliet, Robert & Hubner, Georges, 2008. "Corporate international diversification and the cost of equity: European evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 102-123, February.

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