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Beta Risk and Regime Shift in Market Volatility

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Author Info
Don U.A. Galagedera
Roland G. Shami

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Abstract

In this paper, we relate security returns in the thirty securities in the Dow Jones index to regime shifts in the market portfolio (S&P500) volatility. We model market volatility as a multiple-state Markov switching process of order one and estimate non-diversifiable security risk (beta) in the different market volatility regimes. We test the significance of the premium of the beta risk associated with the different market regimes and find evidence of a relationship between security return and beta risk when conditional on the up and down market movement.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 126.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:126

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Related research
Keywords: Markov regime-switching; Market volatility; Beta risk.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pettengill, Glenn N. & Sundaram, Sridhar & Mathur, Ike, 1995. "The Conditional Relation between Beta and Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 101-116, March. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kim, Moon K. & Zumwalt, J. Kenton, 1979. "An Analysis of Risk in Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 1015-1025, December. [Downloadable!]
  4. Faff, Robert, 2001. "A Multivariate Test of a Dual-Beta CAPM: Australian Evidence," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 157-74, November.
  5. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fraser, P. & Hamelink, F. & Hoesli, M. & MacGregor, B., 2000. "Time-Varying Betas and Cross-Sectional Return-Risk Relation: Evidence from the UK," Papers 2000.03, Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Universite de Geneve-.
  7. Don U.A. Galagedera & Robert Faff, 2004. "Modelling the Risk and Return Relation Conditional on Market Volatility and Market Conditions," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

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