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Forecasting annual water demands dominated by seasonal variations: the case of water demands in Mecca

Author

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  • Robert McNown
  • Omar S. Aburizaizah
  • Charles Howe
  • Nathan Adkins

Abstract

Water usage in Mecca is dominated by trends and cyclical variations in the number of foreign pilgrims visiting for the annual Hajj Pilgrimage. Time series regressions show that the mean temperature in Mecca at the time of the Hajj affects the number of pilgrims, inducing a long-term cyclical pattern for this variable and therefore water usage. The cointegrating relation between water usage, number of external pilgrims and temperature produces long-run forecasts of Mecca water demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McNown & Omar S. Aburizaizah & Charles Howe & Nathan Adkins, 2015. "Forecasting annual water demands dominated by seasonal variations: the case of water demands in Mecca," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 544-552, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:6:p:544-552
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.975331
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    References listed on IDEAS

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