Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis
AbstractThe impact of natural disasters on the Australian equity market is examined. The data set employed consists of daily price and accumulation returns over the period 31 December 1982-1 January 2002 for the All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and a record of 42 severe storms, floods, cyclones, earthquakes and bushfires (wildfires) during this period with an insured loss in excess of A$5 mil. and/or total loss in excess of A$100 mil. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are used to model the returns and the inclusion of news arrival, in the form of the natural disasters, is specified using intervention analysis. The results indicate that bushfires, cyclones and earthquakes have a major effect on market returns, unlike severe storms and floods. The net effects can be positive and/or negative with most effects being felt on the day of the event and with some adjustment in the days that follow.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 19 ()
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Other versions of this item:
- Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: An empirical application using intervention analysis," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 154, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
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