Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis
AbstractThe impact of natural disasters on the Australian equity market is examined. The data set employed consists of daily price and accumulation returns over the period 31 December 1982-1 January 2002 for the All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and a record of 42 severe storms, floods, cyclones, earthquakes and bushfires (wildfires) during this period with an insured loss in excess of A$5 mil. and/or total loss in excess of A$100 mil. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are used to model the returns and the inclusion of news arrival, in the form of the natural disasters, is specified using intervention analysis. The results indicate that bushfires, cyclones and earthquakes have a major effect on market returns, unlike severe storms and floods. The net effects can be positive and/or negative with most effects being felt on the day of the event and with some adjustment in the days that follow.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.
Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 19 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20
Other versions of this item:
- Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: An empirical application using intervention analysis," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 154, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1996. "The Economics of Catastrophes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 12(2-3), pages 113-40, May.
- Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
- Ada Ho & Alan Wan, 2002. "Testing for covariance stationarity of stock returns in the presence of structural breaks: an intervention analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 441-447.
- Horwich, George, 2000. "Economic Lessons of the Kobe Earthquake," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 521-42, April.
- Sara Borden & Asani Sarkar, 1996. "Securitizing property catastrophe risk," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Aug).
- Skidmore, Mark, 2001. "Risk, natural disasters, and household savings in a life cycle model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 15-34, January.
- J. M. Albala-Bertrand, 2000. "Complex Emergencies versus Natural Disasters: An Analytical Comparison of Causes and Effects," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 187-204.
- St Pierre, Eileen F, 1998. "The Impact of Option Introduction on the Conditional Return Distribution of Underlying Securities," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 105-18, February.
- Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009.
"The Economics of Natural Disasters - A Survey,"
200919, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," IDB Publications 6779, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Eduardo Cavallo & Ilan Noy, 2009. "The Economics of Natural Disasters: A Survey," Research Department Publications 4649, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Gürtler, M. & Hibbeln, M. & Winkelvos, C., 2012. "The impact of the financial crisis and natural catastrophes on CAT bonds," Working Papers IF40V1, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
- Hood, Matthew & Kamesaka, Akiko & Nofsinger, John & Tamura, Teruyuki, 2013. "Investor response to a natural disaster: Evidence from Japan's 2011 earthquake," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 240-252.
- Benjamin Collier & Ani L. Katchova & Jerry R. Skees, 2011.
"Loan portfolio performance and El Niño, an intervention analysis,"
Agricultural Finance Review,
Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(1), pages 98-119, May.
- Collier, Benjamin & Katchova, Ani L. & Skees, Jerry R., 2010. "Loan Portfolio Performance and El Niño, an Intervention Analysis," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56217, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
- Fink, Jason D. & Fink, Kristin E., 2013. "Hurricane forecast revisions and petroleum refiner equity returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-11.
- Worthington, Andrew & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005.
"Catastrophic Shocks and Capital markets: A Comparative Analysis by Disaster and Sector,"
Economics Working Papers
wp05-20, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
- Andrew Worthington & Abbas Valadkhani, 2005. "Catastrophic Shocks and Capital Markets: A Comparative Analysis by Disaster and Sector," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 331-344.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.