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International growth and volatility in historical perspective

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  • Mark Siegler

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the volatility and growth of real GDP using a newly constructed panel data set from twelve countries over the 1870 to 1929 period. In addition, many other variables are examined that are related to economic growth. The goal has been to uncover robust empirical regularities on this issue for the period prior to the Great Depression - a period which has been relatively neglected in previous empirical work. The main finding is that there is a robust negative partial correlation between volatility and growth, after controlling for other factors. This result is consistent with recent empirical evidence on the post-World War II period.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 67-71

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:2:p:67-71

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  1. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
  2. Peter L. Rousseau & Richard Sylla, 2003. "Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 373-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2002. "The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  5. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  6. Dawson, John W. & Stephenson, E. Frank, 1997. "The link between volatility and growth: Evidence from the States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 365-369, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 2005. "Neoclassical Models of Endogenous Growth: The Effects of Fiscal Policy, Innovation and Fluctuations," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 13-65 Elsevier.
  3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA.

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