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Wie stark reagiert der deutsche Wohnungsbau auf steigende Kapitalmarktzinsen?
[How Strongly Does German Residential Construction React to Rising Capital Market Interest Rates?]

Author

Listed:
  • Norbert Hiller

    (Hochschule für Polizei und öffentliche Verwaltung)

  • Oliver Lerbs

    (Hochschule für Polizei und öffentliche Verwaltung)

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Seit Jahresbeginn gerät der deutsche Wohnungsbau neben steigenden Kosten für Baustoffe, Personal und Energie durch stark anziehende Finanzierungskosten unter Druck. In Verbindung mit hohen Inflationsraten im Euroraum sind die Kapitalmarktzinsen und damit auch die Zinsen für Baukredite erheblich gestiegen. Schon 2021 ging die Zahl der fertiggestellten Wohnungen gegenüber dem Vorjahr um gut 4 % zurück. Der Beitrag untersucht, ob und wie stark der deutsche Wohnungsbau historisch auf Veränderungen der Kapitalmarktzinsen reagiert hat. Er zeigt auf, dass ohne wirtschaftspolitische Gegenmaßnahmen ein erheblicher Rückgang der Bauaktivität droht. Eines der zentralen Ziele der Ampelkoalition würde damit in weite Ferne rücken.

Suggested Citation

  • Norbert Hiller & Oliver Lerbs, 2022. "Wie stark reagiert der deutsche Wohnungsbau auf steigende Kapitalmarktzinsen? [How Strongly Does German Residential Construction React to Rising Capital Market Interest Rates?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(9), pages 716-723, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:102:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1007_s10273-022-3272-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-022-3272-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitrios Staikos & Wenjun Xue, 2017. "What drives housing prices, rent and new construction in China," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(5), pages 662-686, October.
    2. Denise DiPasquale & William C. Wheaton, 1992. "The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 181-198, June.
    3. Adams, Zeno & Füss, Roland, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of international housing markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 38-50, March.
    4. Alexander Herborn & Gunther Schnabl, 2022. "Wohnimmobilienpreise, Inflationsmessung und Geldpolitik im Euroraum [Housing Prices, Inflation Measurement and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 402-407, May.
    5. Dechent, Jens & Wagner, Ingo, 2020. "Der Wohnungsmarkt aus Sicht der Bautätigkeitsstatistik: Entwicklung und Kennzahlen seit der Jahrtausendwende," WISTA – Wirtschaft und Statistik, Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Wiesbaden, vol. 72(2), pages 46-60.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lukas Jonas & Carolin Martin & Thomas Theobald, 2023. "Mehr öffentlicher Wohnungsbau zum Erhalt der Kapazitäten?," IMK Policy Brief 155-2023, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E44; R31; R38;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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