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A Decentralized Bi-Level Fuzzy Two-Stage Decision Model for Flood Management

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  • Hong Wang

    (South University of Science and Technology of China
    South University of Science and Technology of China)

  • Xiaodong Zhang

    (Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory)

Abstract

Flood, as a serious worldwide environment problem, can lead to detrimental economic losses and fatalities. Effective flood control is desired to mitigate the adverse impacts of flooding and the associated flood risk through development of cost-effective and efficient flood management decisions and policies. A bi-level fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming model, named BIFS model is developed in this study to provide decision support for economic analysis of flood management. The BIFS model is capable of not only addressing the sequential decision making issue involving the two-level decision makers, but also correcting the pre-regulated flood management decisions before the occurrence of a flood event in the two-stage environment. The probabilistic and non-probabilistic uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and fuzzy sets are quantitatively analyzed. The overall satisfaction solution is obtained for meeting the goals of the two-level decision makers by compromising, reflecting the tradeoffs among various decision makers in the two decision-making levels. The results of application of the BIFS model to a representative case study indicate informed decision strategies for flood management. Tradeoffs between economic objectives and uncertainty-averse attitudes of decision makers are quantified.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Wang & Xiaodong Zhang, 2018. "A Decentralized Bi-Level Fuzzy Two-Stage Decision Model for Flood Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1615-1629, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1894-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1894-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages 141-164, December.
    2. Zhang, Xiaodong & Vesselinov, Velimir V., 2016. "Energy-water nexus: Balancing the tradeoffs between two-level decision makers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 77-87.
    3. ZhenFang Liu & GuoHe Huang, 2009. "Dual-Interval Two-Stage Optimization for Flood Management and Risk Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(11), pages 2141-2162, September.
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    6. José Barredo, 2007. "Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(1), pages 125-148, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Zhang, Y.F. & Liu, Y.R. & Wang, H. & Ding, Y.K., 2022. "Planning water-food-ecology nexus system under uncertainty: Tradeoffs and synergies in Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    2. Yizhong Chen & Li He & Hongwei Lu & Jing Li & Lixia Ren, 2018. "Planning for Regional Water System Sustainability Through Water Resources Security Assessment Under Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3135-3153, July.
    3. Yong-Gun Kim & Myong-Bong Jo & Pyol Kim & Song-Nam Oh & Chung-Hyok Paek & Sung-Ryol So, 2021. "Effective Optimization-Simulation Model for Flood Control of Cascade Barrage Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 135-157, January.

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